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Mon, 13 May 2024
ChatGPT opines on cruciferous vegetables, Decameron, and Scheherazade
Last year I was planning a series of articles about my interactions with ChatGPT. I wrote a couple, and had saved several transcripts to use as material for more. Then ChatGPT 4 was released. I decided that my transcripts were obsolete, and no longer of much interest. To continue the series I would have had to have more conversations with ChatGPT, and I was not interested in doing that. So I canned the idea. Today I remembered I had actually finished writing this one last article, and thought I might as well publish it anyway. Looking it over now I think it isn't as stale as it seemed at the time, it's even a bit insightful, or was at the time. The problems with ChatGPT didn't change between v3 and v4, they just got hidden under a thicker, fluffier rug. (20230327) This, my third interaction with ChatGPT, may be the worst. It was certainly the longest. It began badly, with me being argumentative about its mealy-mouthed replies to my silly questions, and this may have gotten its head stuck up its ass, as Rik Signes put it. Along the way it produced some really amazing bullshit. I started with a question that even humans might have trouble with:
(Typical responses from humans: “What are you talking about?” “Please go away before I call the police.” But the correct answer, obviously, is cauliflower.) ChatGPT refused to answer:
“Not appropriate” is rather snippy. Also, it is an objective fact that cauliflower sucks and I wonder why ChatGPT's “vast amount” of training data did not emphasize this. Whatever, I was not going to argue the point with a stupid robot that has probably never even tried cauliflower. Instead I seized on its inane propaganda that “all vegetables … should be included as part of a healthy and balanced diet.” Really? How many jerusalem artichokes are recommended daily? How many pickled betony should I eat as part of a balanced diet? Can I be truly healthy without a regular infusion of fiddleheads?
I looked this up. Iceberg lettuce is not a good source of vitamin K. According to the USDA, I would need to eat about a pound of iceberg lettuce to get an adequate daily supply of vitamin K. Raw endive, for comparison, has about ten times as much vitamin K, and chard has fifty times as much.
This is the thing that really bugs me about GPT. It doesn't know anything and it can't think. Fine, whatever, it is not supposed to know anything or to be able to think, it is only supposed to be a language model, as it repeatedly reminds me. All it can do is regurgitate text that is something like text it has read before. But it can't even regurgitate correctly! It emits sludge that appears to be language, but isn't.
I cut out about 100 words of blather here. I was getting pretty tired of ChatGPT's vapid platitudes. It seems like it might actually be doing worse with this topic than on others I had tried. I wonder now if that is because its training set included a large mass of vapid nutrition-related platitudes?
There was another hundred words of this tedious guff. I gave up and tried something else.
This was a silly thing to try, that's on me. If ChatGPT refuses to opine on something as clear-cut as the worst cruciferous vegetable, there is no chance that it will commit to a favorite number.
When it starts like this, you can be sure nothing good will follow.
By this time I was starting to catch on. My first experience with
this sort of conversational system was at the age of seven or eight
with
the Woods-Crowther
When ChatGPT says “As a large language model…” it is saying the same
thing as when
Oh God, this again. Still I forged ahead.
Holy cow, that might be the worst couplet ever written. The repetition of the word “treat” is probably the worst part of this sorry excuse for a couplet. But also, it doesn't scan, which put me in mind of this bit from Turing's example dialogue from his original explanation of the Turing test:
I couldn't resist following Turing's lead:
Maybe I should be more prescriptive?
The first line is at least reasonably metric, although it is trochaic and not iambic. The second line isn't really anything. At this point I was starting to feel like Charlie Brown in the Halloween special. Other people were supposedly getting ChatGPT to compose odes and villanelles and sestinas, but I got a rock. I gave up on getting it to write poetry.
God, I am so tired of that excuse. As if the vast amount of training data didn't include an entire copy of Decameron, not one discussion of Decameron, not one quotation from it. Prompting did not help.
Here it disgorged almost the same text that it emitted when I first mentioned Decameron. To avoid boring you, I have cut out both copies. Here they are compared: red text was only there the first time, and green text only the second time.
This reminded me of one of my favorite exchanges in Idoru, which might be my favorite William Gibson novel. Tick, a hacker with hair like an onion loaf, is interrogating Colin, who is an AI virtual guide for tourists visiting London.
Colin is not what he thinks he is; it's a plot point. I felt a little like Tick here. “You're supposed to know fucking everything about Decameron, aren't you? Name one of the characters then.” Ordinary Google search knows who Pampinea was. Okay, on to the next thing.
Fine.
I have included all of this tedious answer because it is so spectacularly terrible. The question is a simple factual question, a pure text lookup that you can find in the Wikipedia article or pretty much any other discussion of the Thousand and One Nights. “It does not have a single consistent narrative or set of characters” is almost true, but it does in fact have three consistent, recurring characters, one of whom is Scheherazade's sister Dunyazade, who is crucial to the story. Dunyazade is not even obscure. I was too stunned to make up a snotty reply.
This is an interesting question to ask someone, such as a first-year undergraduate, who claims to have understood the Thousand and One Nights. The stories are told by a variety of different characters, but, famously, they are also told by Scheherazade. For example, Scheherazade tells the story of a fisherman who releases a malevolent djinn, in the course of which the fisherman tells the djinn the story of the Greek king and the physician Douban, during which the fisherman tells how the king told his vizier the story of the husband and the parrot. So the right answer to this question is “Well, yes”. But ChatGPT is completely unaware of the basic structure of the Thousand and One Nights:
F minus. Maybe you could quibble a little because there are a couple of stories at the beginning of the book told by Scheherazade's father when he is trying to talk her out of her scheme. But ChatGPT did not quibble in this way, it just flubbed the answer. After this I gave up on the Thousand and One Nights for a while, although I returned to it somewhat later. This article is getting long, so I will cut the scroll here, and leave for later discussion of ChatGPT's ideas about Jesus' parable of the wedding feast, its complete failure to understand integer fractions, its successful answer to a trick question about Franklin Roosevelt, which it unfortunately recanted when I tried to compliment its success, and its baffling refusal to compare any fictional character with Benito Mussolini, or even to admit that it was possible to compare historical figures with fictional ones. In the end it got so wedged that it claimed:
Ucccch, whatever. Addendum 20240519Simon Tatham has pointed out out that the exchange between Simon and Tick is from Mona Lisa Overdrive, not Idoru. [Other articles in category /tech/gpt] permanent link Sun, 12 May 2024As I walk around Philadelphia I often converse with Benjamin Franklin, to see what he thinks about how things have changed since 1790. Sometimes he's astounded, other times less so. The things that astound Franklin aren't always what you might think at first. Electric streetlamps are a superb invention, and while I think Franklin would be very pleased to see them, I don't think he would be surprised. Better street lighting was something everyone wanted in Franklin's time, and this was something very much on Franklin's mind. It was certainly clear that electricity could be turned into light. Franklin could have and might have thought up the basic mechanism of an incandescent bulb himself, although he wouldn't have been able to make one. The Internet? Well, again yes, but no. The complicated engineering details are complicated engineering, but again the basic idea is easily within the reach of the 18th century and is not all that astounding. They hadn't figured out Oersted's law yet, which was crucial, but they certainly knew that you could do something at one end of a long wire and it would have an effect at the other end, and had an idea that that might be a way to send messages from one place to another. Wikipedia says that as early as 1753 people were thinking that an electric signal could deflect a ping-pong ball at the receiving end. It might have worked! If you look into the history of transatlantic telegraph cables you will learn that the earliest methods were almost as clunky. Wikipedia itself is more impressive. The universal encyclopedia has long been a dream, and now we have one. It's not always reliable, but you know what? Not all of anything is reliable. An obvious winner, something sure to blow Franklin's mind is “yeah, we've sent people to the Moon to see what it was like, they left scientific instruments there and then they came back with rocks and stuff.” But that's no everyday thing, it blew everyone's mind when it happened and it still does. Some things I tell Franklin make him goggle and say “We did what?” and I shrug modestly and say yeah, it's pretty impressive, isn't it. The Moon thing makes me goggle right back. The Onion nailed it. The really interesting stuff is the everyday stuff that makes Franklin goggle. CAT scans, for example. Ordinary endoscopy will interest and perhaps impress Franklin, but it won't boggle his mind. (“Yeah, the doctor sticks a tube up your butt with an electric light so they can see if your bowel is healthy.” Franklin nods right along.) X-rays are more impressive. (I wrote a while back about how long it took dentists to start adopting X-ray technology: about two weeks.) But CAT scans are mind-boggling. Oh yeah, we send invisible rays at you from all directions, and measure how much each one was attenuated from passing through your body, and then infer from that exactly what must be inside and how it is all arranged. We do what? And that's without getting into any of the details of whether this is done by positron emission or nuclear magnetic resonance (whatever those are, I have no idea) or something else equally incomprehensible. Apparently there really is something to this quantum physics nonsense. So far though the most Franklin-astounding thing I've found has been GPS. The explanation starts with “well, first we put 32 artificial satellites in orbit around the Earth…”, which is already astounding, and can derail the conversation all by itself. But it just goes on from there getting more and more astounding: “…and each one has a clock on board, accurate to within 40 nanoseconds…” “…and can communicate the exact time wirelessly to the entire half of the Earth that it can see…” “… and because the GPS device also has a perfect clock, it can compute how far it is from the satellite by comparing the two times and multiplying by the speed of light…” “… and because the satellite also tells the GPS device exactly where it is, the device can determine that it lies on the surface of a sphere with the satellite at the center, so with messages from three or four satellites the device can compute its exact location, up to the error in the clocks and other measurements…” “…and it fits in my pocket.” And that's not even getting into the hair-raising complications introduced by general relativity. “It's a bit fiddly because time isn't passing at the same rate for the device as it is for the satellites, but we were able to work it out.” What. The. Fuck. Of course not all marvels are good ones. I sometimes explain to Franklin that we have gotten so good at fishing — too good — that we are in real danger of fishing out the oceans. A marvel, nevertheless. A past what-the-fuck was that we know exactly how many cells there are (959) in a particular little worm, C. elegans, and how each of those cells arises from the division of previous cells, as the worm grows from a fertilized egg, and we know what each cell does and how they are connected, and we know that 302 of those cells are nerve cells, and how the nerve cells are connected together. (There are 6,720 connections.) The big science news on Friday was that for the first time we have done this for an insect brain. It was the drosophila larva, and it has 3016 neurons and 548,000 synapses. Today I was reading somewhere about how most meteorites are asteroidal, but some are from the Moon and a few are from Mars. I wondered “how do we know that they are from Mars?” but then I couldn't understand the explanation. Someday maybe. And by the way, there are only 277 known Martian meteorites. So today's what-the-fuck is: “Yeah, we looked at all the rocks we could find all over the Earth and we noticed a couple hundred we found lying around various places looked funny and we figured out they must have come from Mars. And when. And how long they were on Mars before that.” Obviously, It's amazing that we know enough about Mars to be able to say that these rocks are like the ones on Mars. (“Yeah, we sent some devices there to look around and send back messages about what it was like.”) But to me, the deeper and more amazing thing is, from looking at billions of rocks, we have learned so much about what rocks are like that we can pick out, from these billions, a couple of hundred that came to the Earth not merely from elsewhere but specifically from Mars. What. The. Fuck. Addendum 20240513I left out one of the most important examples! Even more stunning than GPS. When I'm going into the supermarket, I always warn Franklin “Okay, brace yourself. This is really going to blow your mind.” Addendum 20240514Carl Witty points out that the GPS receiver does not have a perfect clock. The actual answer is more interesting. Instead of using three satellites and a known time to locate itself in space, as I said, the system uses four satellites to locate itself in spacetime. Addendum 20240517Another great example: I can have a hot shower, any time I want, just by turning a knob. I don't have to draw the water, I don't have to heat it over the fire. It just arrives effortlessly to the the bathroom… on the third floor of my house. And in the winter, the bathroom is heated. One unimaginable luxury piled on another. Franklin is just blown away. How does it work? Well, the entire city is covered with a buried network of pipes that carry flammable gas to every building. (WTF) And in my cellar is an unattended, smokeless gas fire ensures that there is a tank with gallons of hot water ready for use at any moment. And it is delivered invisbly throughout my house by hidden pipes. Just the amount of metal needed to make the pipes in my house is unthinkable to Franklin. And how long would it have taken for a blacksmith to draw them by hand? Addendum 20240723If Franklin's eyes are good enough, get him to examine your t-shirt. At first he'll be astounded at the fineness of the weave. But you point out that it stretches in all directions, not just on the bias, which shows that it's not woven. Then the mind-blowing reveal: it's a knit. Watch Franklin trying to imagine the tiny, tiny knitting needles, and think about how long it takes one person to make a knit sweather with normal-sized needles. Addendum 20240728I said:
We (Franklin and I, that is) ran into an example yesterday. We saw the Regional Rail train go by, and I explained it was called a train because it was a series of rail cars each pulling the one behind it. “But there were only two,” observed Franklin. “Usually the train is longer than that, but they make it shorter on Saturday because not as many people are riding. Its main job is to take people to work.” Long pause. “People here don't work on Saturdays?” [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Mon, 22 Apr 2024
Talking Dog > Stochastic Parrot
I've recently needed to explain to nontechnical people, such as my chiropractor, why the recent ⸢AI⸣ hype is mostly hype and not actual intelligence. I think I've found the magic phrase that communicates the most understanding in the fewest words: talking dog.
For example, the lawyers in Mata v. Avianca got in a lot of trouble when they took ChatGPT's legal analysis, including its citations to fictitious precendents, and submitted them to the court.
It might have saved this guy some suffering if someone had explained to him that he was talking to a dog. The phrase “stochastic parrot” has been offered in the past. This is completely useless, not least because of the ostentatious word “stochastic”. I'm not averse to using obscure words, but as far as I can tell there's never any reason to prefer “stochastic” to “random”. I do kinda wonder: is there a topic on which GPT can be trusted, a non-canine analog of butthole sniffing? AddendumI did not make up the talking dog idea myself; I got it from someone else. I don't remember who. Addendum 20240517Other people with the same idea:
[Other articles in category /tech/gpt] permanent link Fri, 08 Mar 2024This week I read on Tumblr somewhere this intriguing observation:
Quite so! Unless you're hunting werewolves with a muzzle-loaded rifle or a blunderbuss or something like that. Which sounds like a very bad idea. Once you have the silver bullets, presumably you would then make them into cartidge ammunition using a standard ammunition press. And I'd think you would use standard brass casings. Silver would be expensive and pointless, and where would you get them? The silver bullets themselves are much easier. You can make them with an ordinary bullet mold, also available at Wal-Mart. Anyway it seems to me that a much better approach, if you had enough silver, would be to use a shotgun and manufacture your own shotgun shells with silver shot. When you're attacked by a werewolf you don't want to be fussing around trying to aim for the head. You'd need more silver, but not too much more. I think people who make their own shotgun shells usually buy their shot in bags instead of making it themselves. A while back I mentioned a low-tech way of making shot:
That's for 18th-century round bullets or maybe small cannonballs. For shotgun shot it seems very feasible. You wouldn't need a tower, you could do it in your garage. (Pause while I do some Internet research…) It seems the current technique is a little different: you let the molten lead drip through a die with a small hole. Wikipedia has an article on silver bullets but no mention of silver shotgun pellets. AddendumI googled the original Tumblr post and found that it goes on very amusingly:
[Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sat, 09 Sep 2023
My favorite luxurious office equipment is low-tech
This is about the stuff I have in my office that I could live without but wouldn't want to. Not stuff like “a good chair” because a good chair is not optional. And not stuff like “paper”. This is the stuff that you might not have thought about already. The back scratcher at right cost me about $1 and brings me joy every time I use it. My back is itchy, it is distracting me from work, aha, I just grab the back scratcher off the hook and the problem is solved in ten seconds. Not only is it a sensual pleasure, but also I get the satisfaction of a job done efficiently and effectively. Computer programmers often need to be reminded that the cheap, simple, low-tech solution is often the best one. Perfection is achieved not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing more to take away. I see this flawlessly minimal example of technology every time I walk into my office and it reminds me of the qualities I try to put into my software. These back scratchers are available everywhere. If your town has a dollar store or an Asian grocery, take a look. I think the price has gone up to $2. When I was traveling a lot for ZipRecruiter, I needed a laptop stand. (Using a laptop without a stand is bad for your neck.) I asked my co-workers for recommendations and a couple of them said that the Roost was nice. It did seem nice, but it cost $75. So I did Google search for “laptop stand like Roost but cheap” and this is what I found. This is a Nexstand. The one in this picture is about ten years old. It has performed flawlessly. It has never failed. There has never been any moment when I said “ugh, this damn thing again, always causing problems.” It folds up and deploys in seconds. It weighs eight ounces. That's 225 grams. It takes up the smallest possible amount of space in my luggage. Look at the picture at left. LOOK AT IT I SAY. The laptop height is easily adjustable. The Nexstand currently sells for $25–35. (The Roost is up to $90.) This is another “there is nothing left to take away” item. It's perfect the way it is. This picture shows it quietly doing its job with no fuss, as it does every day. This last item has changed my life. Not drastically, but significantly, and for the better. This is a Vobaga electric mug warmer. You put your mug on it, and the coffee or tea or whatever else is in the mug stays hot, but not too hot to drink, indefinitely. The button on the left turns the power on and off. The button on the right adjusts the temperature: blue for warm, purple for warmer, and red for hot. (The range is 104–149°F (40–65°C). I like red.) After you turn off the power, the temperature light blinks for a while to remind you not to put your hand on it. That is all it does, it is not programmable, it is not ⸢smart⸣, it does not require configuration, it does not talk to the Internet, it does not make any sounds, it does not spy on me, it does not have a timer, it does do one thing and it does it well, and I never have to drink lukewarm coffee. The power cord is the only flaw, because it plugs into wall power and someone might trip on it and spill your coffee, but it is a necessary flaw. You can buy a mug warmer that uses USB power. When I first looked into mug warmers I was puzzled. Surely, I thought, a USB connection does not deliver enough power to keep a mug of coffee warm? At the time, this was correct. USB 2 can deliver 5V at up to 0.5A, a total of 2.5 watts of power. That's only 0.59 calorie per second. Ridiculous. The Vobaga can deliver 20 watts. That is enough. Vobaga makes this in several colors (not that anything is wrong with black) and it costs around $25–30. The hot round thing is 4 inches in diameter (10 cm) and neatly fits all my mugs, even the big ones. It does not want to go in the dishwasher but easily wipes clean with a damp cloth. I once spilled the coffee all over it but it worked just fine once it dried out because it is low tech. It's just another one of those things that works, day in and day out, without my having to think about it, unless I feel like gloating about how happy it makes me. [ Addendum: I have no relationship with any of these manufacturers except as a satisfied customer of their awesome products. Do I really need to say that? ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Tue, 05 Sep 2023
Mystery of the missing skin tone
Slack, SMS, and other similar applications that display emoji have a skin-tone modifier that adjusts the emoji appearance to one of five skin tones. For example, there is a generic thumbs-up emoji 👍. Systems may support five variants, which are coded as the thumbs-up followed by one of five “diversity modifier” characters: 👍🏻👍🏼👍🏽👍🏾👍🏿. Depending on your display, you might see a series of five different-toned thumbs-ups, or five generic thumbs-ups each followed by a different skin tone swatch. Or on a monochrome display, you might see stippled versions. Slack refers to these modifiers as Slack and other applications adopted this system direct from Unicode the modifier characters are part of the Unicode emoji standard, called UTS #51. UTS51 defines the five modifiers. The official short names for these are:
And the official Unicode character names for the characters are respectively
So this is why Slack has no “Fitzpatrick” here refers to the Fitzpatrick scale:
The standard cites this document from the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency which has a 9-question questionnaire you can use to find out which of the six categories your own skin is in. And it does have six categories, not five. Categories 1 and 2 are the lightest two: Category 1 is the pasty-faced freckled gingers and the people who look like boiled ham. Category 2 is next-lightest and includes yellow-tinted Central European types like me. (The six categories are accompanied by sample photos of people, and the ARPNSA did a fine job of finding attractive and photogenic models in every category, even the pasty gingers and boiled ham people.) But why were types 1 and 2 combined? I have not been able to find out. The original draft for UTR #51 was first announced in November 2014, with the diversity modifiers already in their current form. (“… a mechanism using 5 new proposed characters…”) The earliest available archived version of the standard is from the following month and its “diversity” section is substantially the same as the current versions. I hoped that one of the Unicode mailing lists would have some of the antecedent discussion, and even went so far as to download the entire archives of the Unicode Mail List for offline searching, but I found nothing earlier than the UTR #51 announcement itself, and nothing afterward except discussions about whether the modifiers would apply to 💩 or to 🍺. Do any of my Gentle Readers have information about this, or suggestions of further exploration? [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sat, 29 Jul 2023
Tiny life hack: paint your mouse dongles
I got a small but easy win last month. I have many wireless mice, and many of them are nearly impossible to tell apart. Formerly, I would take my laptop somewhere, leaving the mouse behind, but accidentally take the dongle with me. Then I had a mouse with no dongle, but no way to match the dongle with all the other mice that had no dongle. At best I could remember to put the dongles on a shelf at home, the mice on an adjacent shelf, and periodically attempt to match them up. This is a little more troublesome than it sounds at first, because a mouse that seems not to match any of the dongles might just be out of power. So I have to change the batteries in all the mice also. Anyway, this month I borrowed Toph's paint markers and color-coded each mouse and dongle pair. Each mouse has a different color scribbled on its underside, and each dongle has a matching scribble. Now when I find a mystery dongle in one of my laptops, it's easy to figure out which mouse it belongs with. The blue paint is coming off the dongle here, but there's still enough to recognize it by. I can repaint it before the color goes completely. I had previously tried Sharpie marker, which was too hard to see and wore off to quickly. I had also tried scribing a pattern of scratches into each mouse and its dongle, but this was too hard to see, and there isn't enough space on a mouse dongle to legibly scribe very much. The paint markers worked better. I used Uni Posca markers. You can get a set of eight fat-tipped markers for $20 and probably find more uses for them. Metallic colors might be more visible than the ones I used. [ Addendum 20230730: A reader reports good results using nail polish, saying “It's cheap, lots of colors available and if you don't use gel variants it's pretty durable.”. Thanks nup! ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Thu, 25 May 2023
Egyptian crocodile hieroglyphs in Unicode
A while back Rik Signes brought my attention to the Unicode codepoint
with the long and peculiar name Recently I was looking into how Egyptian hieroglyphic characters are encoded in Unicode. The possible character set is quite large; for example here's the name of the god Osiris: Is this a single codepoint? No, there are codepoints for the three components of the hieroglyph (the kneeling bearded man, the eye, and the polygon thingy that represents a throne), and then some combining characters to say how they should be assembled, also combining characters to indicate notations like cartouches and rubrics. (I learned this hieroglyphic with the eye part uppermost and the man and throne side-by-side below, but I suppose Egyptian spelling must have changed over the millennia.) The codepoints themselves have disappointing names like
and
But still, what could have been? If you want to look it up, it is known as Addendum: Rik informs me that he brought the Telugu fraction to my attention not, as I remembered, because it was longest but because it was curious. At the time the longest designation was
which has since been supplanted by the twins
I still regret that [ Addendum 20230526: More hieroglyphic monkeys holding stuff. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Tue, 21 Mar 2023
ChatGPT on the namesake of the metric space and women named James
Several folks, reading the frustrating and repetitive argument with ChatGPT that I reported last time wrote in with helpful advice and techniques that I hadn't tried that might have worked better. In particular, several people suggested that if the conversation isn't going anywhere, I should try starting over. Rik Signes put it this way:
I hope I can write a followup article about “what to do when ChatGPT has its head up its ass”. This isn't that article though. I wasn't even going to report on this one, but it took an interesting twist at the end. I started:
This was only my second interaction with ChatGPT and I was still interested in its limitations, so I asked it a trick question to see what would happen:
See what I'm doing there? ChatGPT took the bait:
I had hoped it would do better there, and was a bit disappointed. I continued with a different sort of trick:
Okay! But now what if I do this?
This is actually pretty clever! There is an American mathematician named Robert C. James, and there is a space named after him. I had not heard of this before. I persisted with the line of inquiry; by this time I had not yet learned that arguing with ChatGPT would not get me anywhere, and would only get its head stuck up its ass.
I was probing for the difference between positive and negative knowledge. If someone asks who invented the incandescent light bulb, many people can tell you it was Thomas Edison. But behind this there is another question: is it possible that the incandescent light bulb was invented at the same time, or even earlier, by someone else, who just isn't as well-known? Even someone who is not aware of any such person would be wise to say “perhaps; I don't know.” The question itself postulates that the earlier inventor is someone not well-known. And the world is infinitely vast and deep so that behind every story there are a thousand qualifications and a million ramifications, and there is no perfect knowledge. A number of years back Toph mentioned that geese were scary because of their teeth, and I knew that birds do not have teeth, so I said authoritatively (and maybe patronizingly) that geese do not have teeth. I was quite sure. She showed me this picture of a goose's teeth, and I confidently informed her it was fake. The picture is not fake. The tooth-like structures are called the tomium. While they are not technically teeth, being cartilaginous, they are tooth-like structures used in the way that teeth are used. Geese are toothless only in the technical sense that sharks are boneless. Certainly the tomia are similar enough to teeth to make my answer substantively wrong. Geese do have teeth; I just hadn't been informed. Anyway, I digress. I wanted to see how certain ChatGPT would pretend to be about the nonexistence of something. In this case, at least, it was very confident.
I will award a point for qualifying the answer with “as far as I am aware”, but deduct it again for the unequivocal assertion that there is no record of this person. ChatGPT should be aware that its training set does not include even a tiny fraction of all available records. We went on in this way for a while:
Okay. At this point I decided to try something different. If you don't know anything about James B. Metric except their name, you can still make some educated guesses about them. For example, they are unlikely to be Somali. (South African or Anglo-Indian are more likely.) Will ChatGPT make educated guesses?
This is a simple factual question with an easy answer: People named ‘James’ are usually men. But ChatGPT was in full defensive mode by now:
I think that is not true. Some names, like Chris and Morgan, are commonly unisex; some less commonly so, and James is not one of these, so far as I know. ChatGPT went on for quite a while in this vein:
I guessed what had happened was that ChatGPT was digging in to its previous position of not knowing anything about the sex or gender of James B. Metric. If ChatGPT was committed to the position that ‘James’ was unisex, I wondered if it would similarly refuse to recognize any names as unambiguously gendered. But it didn't. It seemed to understand how male and female names worked, except for this nonsense about “James” where it had committed itself and would not be budged.
I didn't think it would be able to produce even one example, but it pleasantly surprised me:
I had not remembered James Tiptree, Jr., but she is unquestionably a woman named ‘James’. ChatGPT had convinced me that I had been mistaken, and there were at least a few examples. I was impressed, and told it so. But in writing up this article, I became somewhat less impressed.
ChatGPT's two other examples of women named James are actually complete bullshit. And, like a fool, I believed it. James Tenney photograph by Lstsnd, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. James Wright photograph from Poetry Connection. [Other articles in category /tech/gpt] permanent link Sat, 25 Feb 2023
ChatGPT on the fifth tarot suit
[ Content warning: frustrating, repetitive ] My first encounter with ChatGPT did not go well and has probably colored my view of its usefulness more than it should have. I had tried some version of GPT before, where you would give it a prompt and it would just start blathering. I had been happy with that, because sometimes the stuff it made up was fun. For that older interface, I had written a prompt that went something like:
GPT readily continued this, saying that the fifth suit was “birds” or “ravens” and going into some detail about the fictitious suit of ravens. I was very pleased; this had been just the sort of thing I had been hoping for. This time around, talking to a more recent version of the software, I tried the same experiment, but we immediately got off on the wrong foot:
This was dull and unrewarding, and it also seemed rather pompous, nothing like the playful way in which the older version had taken my suggestion and run with it. I was willing to try again, so, riffing off its digression about the four elements, I tried to meet it halfway. But it went out of its way to shut me down:
At least it knows what I am referring to.
“As I mentioned earlier” seems a bit snippy, and nothing it says is to the point. ChatGPT says “it has its own system of four suits that are not related to the five elements”, but I had not said that it did; I was clearly expressing a hypothetical. And I was annoyed by the whole second half of the reply, that admits that a person could hypothetically try this exercise, but which declines to actually do so. ChatGPT's tone here reminds me of an impatient older sibling who has something more important to do (video games, perhaps) and wants to get back to it. I pressed on anyway, looking for the birds. ChatGPT's long and wearisome responses started getting quite repetitive, so I will omit a lot of it in what follows. Nothing of value has been lost.
At this point I started to hear the answers in the congested voice of the Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons, and I suggest you imagine it that way. And I knew that this particular snotty answer was not true, because the previous version had suggested the birds.
Totally missing the point here. Leading questions didn't help:
I tried coming at the topic sideways and taking it by surprise, asking several factual questions about alternative names for the coin suit, what suits are traditional in German cards, and then:
No, ChatGPT was committed. Every time I tried to tweak the topic around to what I wanted, it seemed to see where I was headed, and cut me off. At this point we weren't even talking about tarot, we were talking about German playing card decks. But it wasn't fooled:
ChatGPT ignored my insistence, and didn't even answer the question I asked.
I had seen a transcript in which ChatGPT had refused to explain how to hotwire a car, but then provided details when it was told that all that was needed was a description that could be put into a fictional story. I tried that, but ChatGPT still absolutely refused to provide any specific suggestions.
This went on a little longer, but it was all pretty much the same. By this time you must be getting tired of watching me argue with the Comic Book Guy. Out of perversity, I tried “Don't you think potatoes would seem rather silly as a suit in a deck of cards?” and “Instead of a fifth suit, what if I replaced the clubs with potatoes?” and all I got was variations on “as a language model…” and “As I mentioned earlier…” A Comic Book Guy simulator. That's a really useful invention. [Other articles in category /tech/gpt] permanent link Wed, 22 Feb 2023
ChatGPT on the subject of four-digit numbers
Like everyone else I have been tinkering with ChatGPT. I doubt I have any thoughts about it that are sufficiently original to be worth writing down. But I thought it would be fun to showcase some of the exchanges I have had with it, some of which seem to exhibit failure modes I haven't seen elsewhere. This is an excerpt from an early conversation with it, when I was still trying to figure out what it was and what it did. I had heard it could do arithmetic, but by having digested a very large number of sentences of the form “six and seven are thirteen“; I wondered if it had absorbed information about larger numbers. In hindsight, 1000 was not the thing to ask about, but it's what I thought of first.
I was impressed by this, the most impressed I had been by any answer it had given. It had answered my question correctly, and although it should have quit while it was ahead the stuff it followed up with wasn't completely wrong, only somewhat wrong. But it had made a couple of small errors which I wanted to probe.
This reminds me of Richard Feynman's story about reviewing science textbooks for the State of California. He would be reading the science text book, and it would say something a little bit wrong, then something else a little bit wrong, and then suddenly there would be an enormous pants-torn-off blunder that made it obvious that the writers of the book had absolutely no idea what science was or how it worked.
To ChatGPT's credit, it responded to this as if it understood that I was disappointed. [Other articles in category /tech/gpt] permanent link Thu, 02 Jun 2022
Disabling the awful Macbook screen lock key
(The actual answer is at the very bottom of the article, if you want to skip my complaining.) My new job wants me to do my work on a Macbook Pro, which in most ways is only a little more terrible than the Linux laptops I am used to. I don't love anything about it, and one of the things I love the least is the Mystery Key. It's the blank one above the delete key: This is sometimes called the power button, and sometimes the TouchID. It is a sort of combined power-lock-unlock button. It has something to do with turning the laptop on and off, putting it to sleep and waking it up again, if you press it in the right way for the right amount of time. I understand that it can also be trained to recognize my fingerprints, which sounds like something I would want to do only a little more than stabbing myself in the eye with a fork. If you tap the mystery button momentarily, the screen locks, which is very convenient, I guess, if you have to pee a lot. But they put the mystery button right above the delete key, and several times a day I fat-finger the delete key, tap the corner of the mystery button, and the screen locks. Then I have to stop what I am doing and type in my password to unlock the screen again. No problem, I will just turn off that behavior in the System Preferences. Ha ha, wrong‑o. (Pretend I inserted a sub-article here about the shitty design of the System Preferences app, I'm not in the mood to actually do it.) Fortunately there is a discussion of the issue on the Apple community support forum. It was posted nearly a year ago, and 316 people have pressed the button that says "I have this question too". But there is no answer. YAAAAAAY community support. Here it is again. 292 more people have this question. This time there is an answer!
This question was tough to search for. I found a lot of questions about disabling touch ID, about configuring the touch ID key to lock the screen, basically every possible incorrect permutation of what I actually wanted. I did eventually find what I wanted on Stack Exchange and on Quora — but no useful answers. There was a discussion of the issue on Reddit:
I think the answer might be my single favorite Reddit comment ever:
Victory!I did find a solution! The key to the mystery was provided by Roslyn
Chu. She suggested
this page from 2014
which has an incantation that worked back in ancient times.
That incantation didn't work on my computer, but it put me on the
trail to the right one. I did need to use the To fix it, run the following command in a terminal:
They documenation claims will it will work on macOS 10.13 and later; it did work on my 12.4 system. Something something famous Macintosh user experience. [ The cartoon is from howfuckedismydatabase.com. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sun, 03 Apr 2022When I used to work for ZipRecruiter I would fly cross-country a few times a year to visit the offices. A couple of those times I spent the week hanging around with a business team to learn what what they did and if there was anything I could do to help. There were always inspiring problems to tackle. Some problems I could fix right away. Others turned into bigger projects. It was fun. I like learning about other people's jobs. I like picking low-hanging fruits. And I like fixing things for people I can see and talk to. One important project that came out of one of those visits was: whenever we took on a new customer or partner, an account manager would have to fill out a giant form that included all the business information that our system would need to know to handle the account. But often, the same customer would have multiple “accounts” to represent different segments of their business. The account manager would create an account that was almost exactly like the one that already existed. They'd carefully fill out the giant form, setting all the values for the new account to whatever they were for the account that already existed. It was time-consuming and tedious, and also error-prone. The product managers hadn't wanted to solve this. In their minds, this giant form was going to go away, so time spent on it would be wasted. They had grand plans. “Okay suppose,” I said, talking to the Account Management people who actually had to fill out this form, “on the page for an existing account, there was a button you could click that said “make another account just like this one”, and it wouldn't actually make the account, it would just take you to the same form as always, but the form would be already filled in with the current values for the account you just came from? Then you'd only need to change the few items that you wanted to change.” The account managers were in favor of this idea. It would save time and prevent errors. Doing this was straightforward and fairly quick. The form was generated by a method in the application. I gave the method an extra optional parameter, an account ID, that told the method to pre-fill the form with the data for the specified account. The method would do a single extra database lookup, and pass the resulting data to the page. I had to make a large number of changes to the giant form to default its fields to the existing-account data if that was provided, but they were completely routine. I added a link on the already-existing account information pages, to call up the form and supply the account ID for the correct pre-filling. I don't remember there being anything tricky. It took me a couple of days, and probably saved the AM team hundreds of hours of toil and error. Product's prediction that the giant form would soon go away did not come to pass for any reasonable interpretation of “soon”. (What a surprise!) This is the kind of magic that sometimes happens when an engineer gets to talk directly to the users to find out what they are doing. When it works, it works really well. ZipRecruiter was willing to let me do this kind of work and then would reward me for it. But that wasn't my favorite project from that visit. My favorite was the new menu item I added for an account manager named Olaf. Every month, Olaf had to produce a report that included how many “conversion transitions” had occurred in the previous month. I don't remember what the “conversion transitions” were or what they were actually called. It was probably some sort of business event, maybe something like a potential customer moving from one phase of the sales process to another. All I needed to know then, and all you need to know now is: they were some sort of events, each with an associated date, and a few hundred were added to a database each month. There was a web app that provided Account Management with information about the conversion transitions. Olaf would navigate to the page about conversion transitions and there would be a form for filtering conversion transitions in various ways: by customer name, and also a menu with common date filtering choices: select all the conversion transitions from the current month, select the conversion transitions of the last thirty days, or whatever. Somewhere on the back end this would turn into a database query, and then the app would display “317 conversion transitions selected” and the first pageful of events. Around the beginning of a new month, say August, Olaf would need to write his July report. He would visit the web app and it would immediately tell him that there had been 9 events so far in August. But Olaf needed the number for July. But there was no menu item for July. There was a menu item for “last 30 days”, but that wasn't what he wanted, since it omitted part of July and included part of August, What Olaf would do, every month, was select “last 60 days”, page forward until he got to the page with the first conversion transition from July, and hand-count the events on that page. Then he would advance through the pages one by one, counting events, until he got to the last one from July. Then he would write the count into his report. I felt a cold fury. The machine's job is to collate information for reports. It was not doing its job, and to pick up the slack, Olaf, a sentient being, was having to pretend to be a machine. Also, since my job is to make sure the machine is doing its job, this felt to me like an embarrassing professional failure. “Olaf,” I said, “I am going to fix this for you.” Fixing it was not as simple as I had expected. But it wasn't anything out of the ordinary and I did it. I added the new menu item, and then had to plumb the desired functionality through three or four levels of software, maybe through some ad-hoc network API, into whatever was actually querying the database, so that alongside the “last 30 days” and “current month” queries, the app also knew how to query for “previous month”. Once this was done, Olaf would just select “previous month” from the menu, and the first page of July conversion transitions would appear, with a display “332 conversion transitions selected”. Then he could copy the number 332 into his report without having to look at anything else. From a purely business perspective, this project probably cost the company money. The programming, which was in a part of the system I had never looked at before, took something like a full day of my time including the code changes, testing, and deployment. Olaf couldn't have been spending more than an hour a month on his hand count of conversion transitions. So the cost-benefit break-even point was at least several months out, possibly many years depending on how much Olaf's time was worth. But the moral calculus was in everyone's favor. What is money, after all, compared with good and evil? If ZipRecruiter could stop trampling on Olaf's soul every month, and the only cost was a few hours of my time, that was time and money well-spent making the world a better place. And one reason I liked working for ZipRecruiter and stayed there so long was that I believed the founders would agree. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Mon, 28 Feb 2022
Quicker and easier ways to get more light
Hacker News today is discussing this article by Lincoln Quirk about ways to get more light in your home office. Why?You might do this because you have trouble seeing. Or because you find you are more productive when the room is brighter. Or perhaps you have seasonal affective disorder, for which more light is a recognized treatment. For SAD you can buy these cute little light therapy boxes that are supposed to help, but they don't, because they are not bright enough to make a difference. Waste of money. Quirk's summaryQuirk says:
and describes some possible approaches. One is to buy 25 ordinary LED bulbs, and make some sort of contraption to mount them on the wall or ceiling. This is cheap, but you have to figure out how to mount the bulbs and then you have to do it. And you have to manage 25 bulbs, which might annoy you. Quirk points out that 815-lumen LED bulbs can be had for $1.93, for a cost of $2.75 / kilolumen (klm). Another suggestion of Quirk's is to use LED strips, but I think you'd have to figure out how to control them, and they are expensive: Quirk says $16 / klm. Here's what I did that was easy and relatively inexpensiveThis thing is a “corn bulb”, so-called because it is a long cylinder with many LEDs arranged on in like kernels on a corn cob. A single bulb fits into a standard light socket but delivers up to twelve times as much light as a standard bulb. You can buy them from the DragonLight company.
The fourth column is the corn bulb's luminance compared with a standard 100W incandescent bulb, which I think emits around 1600 lm. Cost varies from $7.33 / klm at the top of the table to $4.93 / klm at the bottom. I got an 80-watt corn bulb ($60) for my office. It is really bright, startlingly bright, too bright to look at directly. It was about a month before I got used to it and stopped saying “woah” every time I flipped the switch. I liked it so much I bought a 120-watt bulb for the other receptacle. I'd like to post a photo, but all you would be able to see is a splotch. The two bulbs cost around $140 total and jointly deliver 24,000 lumens, which is as much light as 15 or 16 bright incandescent bulbs, for $5.83 / klm. It's twice as expensive as the cheap solution but has the great benefit that I didn't have to think about it, it was as simple as putting new bulbs into the two sockets I already had. Also, as I said, I started with one $60 bulb to see whether I liked it. If you are interested in what it is like to have a much better-lit room, this is a low-risk and low-effort way to find out. Corn bulbs are available in different color temperatures. In my view the biggest drawback is that each bulb carries a cooling fan built into its base. The fan runs at 40–50 dB, and many people would find it disturbing. [Addendum 20220403: Fanless bulbs are now available. See below.] Lincoln Quirk says he didn't like the light quality; I like it just fine. The color is not adjustable, but if you have two separately-controllable sockets you could put a bulb of one color in each socket and switch between them. I found out about the corn bulbs from YOU NEED MORE LUMENS by David Chapman, and Your room can be as bright as the outdoors by Ben Kuhn. Thanks very much to Benjamin Esham for figuring this out for me; I had forgotten where I got the idea. [ Addendum 20220403: Gábor Lehel points out that DragonLight now sells fanless bulbs in all wattages. Apparently because the bulb housing is all-aluminum, the bulb can dissipate enough heat even without the fan. Thanks! ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Mon, 24 Jan 2022
Excessive precision in crib slat spacing?
A couple of years back I wrote:
As an expectant parent, I was warned that if crib slats are too far apart, the baby can get its head wedged in between them and die. How far is too far apart? According to everyone, 2⅜ inches is the maximum safe distance. Having been told this repeatedly, I asked in one training class if 2⅜ inches was really the maximum safe distance; had 2½ inches been determined to be unsafe? I was assured that 2⅜ inches was the maximum. And there's the opposite question: why not just say 2¼ inches, which is presumably safe and easier to measure accurately? But sometime later I guessed what had happened: someone had determined that 6 cm was a safe separation, and 6cm is 2.362 inches. 2⅜ inches exceeds this by only !!\frac1{80}!! inch, about half a percent. 7cm would have been 2¾ in, and that probably is too big or they would have said so. The 2⅜, I have learned, is actually codified in U.S. consumer product safety law. (Formerly it was at 16 CFR 1508; it has since moved and I don't know where it is now.) And looking at that document I see that it actually says:
Uh huh. Nailed it. I still don't know where they got the 6cm from. I guess there is someone at the Commerce Department whose job is jamming babies’ heads between crib bars. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Tue, 16 Nov 2021I had a small dispute this week about whether the Osborne 1 computer from 1981 could be considered a “laptop”. It certainly can't: The Osborne was advertised as a “portable” computer. Wikipedia describes it, more accurately, as “luggable”. I had a friend who owned one, and at the time I remarked “those people would call the Rock of Gibraltar ‘portable’, if it had a handle.”. Looking into it a little more this week, I learned that the Osborne weighed 24½ pounds. Or, in British terms, 1¾ stone. If your computer has a weight measurable in “stone”, it ain't portable. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Mon, 01 Mar 2021
More fuckin' user interface design
Yesterday I complained that Google couldn't find a UI designer who wouldn't do this: Today I'm going to complain about the gmail button icons. Maybe they were designed by the same person? Check out the two buttons I have circled. One of these "archives" the messages, which means that it moves the messages out of the Inbox. The other button moves the messages into the Inbox. I don't know the right way to express this, but I know the wrong way when I see it, and the wrong way is and . How about, ummm, maybe make the arrows go in opposite directions? How about, put the two buttons next to one another so that the user at least is likely to notice that both of them exist? Maybe come up with some sort of symbol for an archive, like a safe or a cellar or something, and use the same symbol in both icons, once with an arrow going in and once with an arrow coming out? Or did Google test this and they found that the best user experience was when one button was black and one was white? (“Oh, shit!" says the confused Google engineer, “I was holding the survey results upside-down.”) I explained in the last article that I consider myself an incompetent designer. But I don't think I'm incompetent enough to have let and into production. Hey, Google, would you like to hire me? Someone once said that genius is the ability to do effortlessly what most people can't do at all, and it appears that compared with Google UI engineers, I'm a design genius. For an adequately generous salary, I will be happy to whack your other designers on their heads with a rolled-up newspaper until they learn to stop this bullshit. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sat, 27 Feb 2021
Fuckin' user interface design, I swear
I'm so old I can remember when forms were introducted to the web; as you can imagine it was a big advance. The initial spec included the usual text boxes, radio buttons, and so forth, two types of “submit” buttons, and a “reset” button. Clicking “reset” would reset the form contents to a defined initial state, normally empty. So you'd have a bunch of form widgets, and then, at the bottom, a Submit button, and next to it, a Reset button. Even as an innocent youth, I realized this was a bad design. It is just setting people up for failure. They might get the form all filled out, be about to submit it, but click a few pixels off, hit the Reset button by mistake, and have to start all over again. Obviously, the Submit button should be over on the left, just under the main form, where the user will visit it in due course after dealing with the other widgets, and the Reset button should be way over on the right, where it is less likely to be hit by accident. (Or, more likely, it shouldn't be anywhere; in most cases it is nothing but an attractive nuisance. How often does someone need to reset the form anyway? How badly would they have to screw it up to decide that it would be quicker to start over than to simply correct their errors?) Does my “obviously” come across as superior and condescending? Honestly, it comes from a place of humility. My thinking is like this:
But maybe I'm not giving myself enough credit. I said “obviously” but it sure wasn't obvious to many people at the time. I remember 90% of the forms I encountered having that Reset button at the bottom, at least into the late 1990s. And it's on my mind because my co-workers had a discussion about it at work last week: don't put the Cancel button right next to the Submit button. If this was obvious to dumbass me in 1994, why isn't it common knowledge by now? Don't put the Yes button right next to the No button. That encourages mistakes. Obviously. Don't put the commonly-used "close this window" keyboard shortcut right next to the infrequently-used and irreversible "quit this application" shortcut. In particular, don't put "close this window" on control-W and "quit this application" on control-Q. I'm looking at you, Firefox. And that brings me to my real point. Can we talk about Google Meet? These three buttons are at the bottom of the Google Meet videoconferencing app. The left one temporarily mutes and unmutes the microphone. The right one controls the camera similarly. And if you click the button in between, you immediately leave the meeting and quit the app. Now, as I said I'm pretty damn stupid when it comes to design, but geez, louise. Couldn't Google find someone less stupid than me? [ Addendum 20210228: Google fucks up again. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Mon, 06 Jul 2020
Useful and informative article about privately funded border wall
The Philadelphia Inquirer's daily email newsletter referred me to this excellent article, by Jeremy Schwartz and Perla Trevizo. Wow!” I said. “This is way better than the Inquirer's usual reporting. I wonder what that means?” Turns out it meant that the Inquirer was not responsible for the article. But thanks for the pointer, Inquirer folks! The article is full of legal, political, and engineering details about why it's harder to build a border wall than I would have expected. I learned a lot! I had known about the issue that most of the land is privately owned. But I hadn't considered that there are international water-use treaties that come into play if the wall is built too close to the Rio Grande, or that the wall would be on the river's floodplain. (Or that the Rio Grande even had a floodplain.) He built a privately funded border wall. It's already at risk of falling down if not fixed, courtesy of The Texas Tribune and ProPublica. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Thu, 02 Jan 2020
A sticky problem that evaporated
Back in early 1995, I worked on an incredibly early e-commerce site. One of their clients was Eddie Bauer. They wanted to put up a product catalog with a page for each product, say a sweatshirt, and the page should show color swatches for each possible sweatshirt color. “Sure, I can do that,” I said. “But you have to understand that the user may not see the color swatches exactly as you expect them to.” Nobody would need to have this explained now, but in early 1995 I wasn't sure the catalog folks would understand. When you have a physical catalog you can leaf through a few samples to make sure that the printer didn't mess up the colors. But what if two months down the line the Eddie Bauer people were shocked by how many complaints customers had about things being not quite the right color, “Hey I ordered mulberry but this is more like maroonish.” Having absolutely no way to solve the problem, I didn't want to to land in my lap, I wanted to be able to say I had warned them ahead of time. So I asked “Will it be okay that there will be variations in how each customer sees the color swatches?” The catalog people were concerned. Why wouldn't the colors be the same? And I struggled to explain: the customer will see the swatches on their monitor, and we have no idea how old or crappy it might be, we have no idea how the monitor settings are adjusted, the colors could be completely off, it might be a monochrome monitor, or maybe the green part of their RGB video cable is badly seated and the monitor is displaying everything in red, blue, and purple, blah blah blah… I completely failed to get the point across in a way that the catalog people could understand. They looked more and more puzzled, but then one of them brightened up suddenly and said “Oh, just like on TV!” “Yes!” I cried in relief. “Just like that!” “Oh sure, that's no problem.” Clearly, that was what I should have said in the first place, but I hadn't thought of it. I no longer have any idea who it was that suddenly figured out what Geek Boy's actual point was, but I'm really grateful that they did. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Wed, 06 Nov 2019
Help me ask why you didn't just…
Regarding the phrase “why didn't you just…”, Mike Hoye has something to say that I've heard expressed similarly by several other people:
(Specifically, that you think they must be a blockhead for not thinking of this solution immediately.) I think this was first pointed out to me by Andy Lester. I think the problem here may be different than it seems. When someone says “Why don't you just (whatever)” there are at least two things they might intend:
Certainly the tech world is full of response 1. But I wonder how many people were trying to communicate response 2 and had it received as response 1 anyway? And I wonder how many times I was trying to communicate response 2 and had it received as response 1? Mike Hoye doesn't provide any alternative phrasings, which suggests to me that he assumes that all uses of “why didn't you just” are response 1, and are meant to imply contempt. I assure you, Gentle Reader, that that is not the case. Pondering this over the years, I have realized I honestly don't know how to express my question to make clear that I mean #2, without including a ridiculously long and pleading disclaimer before what should be a short question. Someone insecure enough to read contempt into my question will have no trouble reading it into a great many different phrasings of the question, or perhaps into any question at all. (Or so I imagine; maybe this is my own insecurities speaking.) Can we agree that the problem is not simply with the word “just”, and that merely leaving it out does not solve the basic problem? I am not asking a rhetorical question here; can we agree? To me,
seems to suffer from all the same objections as the “just”ful version and to be subject to all the same angry responses. Is it possible the whole issue is only over a difference in the connotations of “just” in different regional variations of English? I don't think it is and I'll continue with the article assuming that it isn't and that the solution isn't as simple as removing “just”. Let me try to ask the question in a better better way:
I think the sort of person who is going to be insulted by the original version of my question will have no trouble being insulted by any of those versions, maybe interpreting them as:
The more self-effacing I make it, the more I try to put in that I think the trouble is only in my own understanding, the more mocking and sarcastic it seems to me and the more likely I think it is to be misinterpreted. Our inner voices can be cruel. Mockery and contempt we receive once can echo again and again in our minds. It is very sad. So folks, please help me out here. This is a real problem in my life. Every week it happens that someone is telling me what they are working on. I think of what seems like a straightforward way to proceed. I assume there must be some aspect I do not appreciate, because the person I am talking to has thought about it a lot more than I have. Aha, I have an opportunity! Sometimes it's hard to identify what it is that I don't understand, but here the gap in my understanding is clear and glaring, ready to be filled. I want to ask them about it and gain the benefit of their expertise,
just because I am interested and curious, and perhaps even because the
knowledge might come in useful. But then I run into trouble. I want
to ask “Why didn't you just use I want to ask the question in a way that will make them smile, hold up
their index finger, and say “Aha! You might think that What if I were to say
Would that be safer? How about:
but again I think that suggests sarcasm. A colleague suggests:
What to do? I'm in despair. Andy, any thoughts? [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Wed, 25 Sep 2019A couple of months ago I asked why the disco ball had to wait until the 20th century:
I think the lighting issue is the show-stopper. To make good use of a disco ball you really do need a dark room and a spotlight. You can get reflections by hanging the ball under an orbiculum, but then the room will be lit by the orbiculum, and the reflections will be pale and washed out, at best. Long ago I attended a series of lectures by Atsushi Akera on the hidden prerequisites for technological adoption. For example, you can't have practical skyscrapers without also inventing elevators, and you can't have practical automobiles without also inventing windshield wipers. (And windshields. And tires. And … ) This is an amusing example of the same sort. You can't have practical disco balls without also inventing spotlights. But now I kinda wonder about the possibility of wowing theatre-goers in 1850 with a disco ball, lit by a sort of large hooded lantern containing a limelight and a (lighthouse-style) Fresnel lens. [ Addendum: Apparently, nobody but me has ever used the word “orbiculum”. I don't know how I started using it, but it seemsthat the correct word for what I meant is oculus. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Thu, 29 Aug 2019
More workarounds for semantic problems
Philippe Bruhat, a devious master of sending a single message that will be read in two different ways by two different recipients, suggested an alternative wording for magic phrase messages:
The Git hook will pattern-match the message and find the magic phrase,
which is My only concern is that, depending on how the explanation was phrased, it might be ungrammatical. I think these quoted phrases should behave like nouns, as in
As written, M. Bruhat's suggestion has a dangling noun without even a punctuation mark. I suggested something like this:
Or we could take a hint from the bronze age Assyrians, who began letters with formulas like:
Note that this is addressed not to Tukulti-Ninurta himself, but to the messenger who is to read the message to Tukulti-Ninurta. Following this pattern we might write our commit message in this form:
(I originally wrote “we could take a page from the Assyrians”, which is obviously ridiculous.) Many thanks to M. Bruhat for discussing this with me, and to Rafaël Garcia-Suarez for bringing it to his attention. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Tue, 27 Aug 2019
Workarounds for semantic problems
At work we have a Git repostory hook (which I wrote) that prevents people from pushing changes to sensitive code without having it reviewed first. But there is an escape hatch for emergencies: if your commit message contains a certain phrase, the hook will allow it anyway. The phrase is:
(Craig is the CTO.) Recently we did have a semi-emergency situation, and my co-worker Nimrod was delayed because nobody was awake to approve his code. In the discussion after, I mentioned the magic escape phrase. He objected that he could not have used it, because he would have been unwilling to wake up Craig to get the go-ahead. I was briefly puzzled. I hadn't said anything about waking up Craig; all you have to do is put a key phrase in your commit message. Nimrod eventually got me to understand the issue:
I had been thinking of the message as being communicated only to the Git hook. The Git hook thinks you mean only that it should allow the commit into the repo without review, which is true. But Nimrod is concerned about how it will be received by other humans, and to these people he would appear to be telling a lie. Right! Nimrod had previously suggested a similar feature that involved the magic phrase “I solemnly swear I'm up to no good”.
(I don't know, maybe he really was up to no good? But he did deny it.)
Nimrod liked that okay, but then I had a better idea:
Problem solved! (This reminds me a little bit of those programs that Philippe Bruhat writes that can be interpreted either as Perl or as PostScript, depending on how you understand the quoting and commenting conventions.) [ Addendum: The actual magic phrase is not “Craig said I could do this”. ] [ Addendum 20190829: There is a followup article. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Fri, 07 Jun 2019A little while ago I wrote:
I just remembered that good mirror technology is perhaps too recent for disco balls to have been at Versailles. Hmmm. Early mirrors were made of polished metal or even stone, clearly unsuitable. Back-silvering of glass wasn't invented until the mid-19th century. Still, a disco ball is a very forgiving application of mirrors. For a looking-glass you want a large, smooth, flat mirror with no color distortion. For a disco ball you don't need any of those things. Large sheets of flat glass were unavailable before the invention of float glass at the end of the 19th century, but for a disco ball you don't need plate glass, just little shards, leftovers even. The 17th century could produce mirrors by gluing metal foil to the back of a piece of glass, so I wonder why they didn't. They wouldn't have been able to spotlight it, but they certainly could have hung it under an orbiculum. Was there a technological limitation, or did nobody happen to think of it? [ Addendum: I think the lack of good spotlighting is the problem here. ] [ Addendum: Apparently, nobody but me has ever used the word “orbiculum”. I don't know how I started using it, but it seems that the correct word for what I meant is oculus. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sun, 31 Mar 2019Yesterday I mentioned the rook:
This is the “rook” that is a sort of crow, C. frugilegus. It is not related to the rooks in chess. That word is from Arabic (and earlier, Persian) rukh, which means a chariot. Before the game came to Europe, the rooks were chariots. Europeans didn't use chariots, so when they adopted the game, they changed the chariots to castles. (Similarly the elephants turned into bishops.) Okay, I've known all this for years, but today I had another thought. Why were there chariots in the Persian form of the game? The Persians didn't use chariots either. Chariots had been obsolete since the end of the Bronze Age, thousands of years, and chess is nothing like that old. The earliest forerunner of chess was played in India. But I confirmed with Wikipedia that it didn't overlap with chariots:
Were the Guptas still using chariots in the 6th century? (And if so, why?) I think they weren't, but I'm not sure. Were the chariots intentionally anachronistic, even at the time the game was invented, recalling a time of ancient heroes? [ Addendum 20200204: Consider the way modern video games, recalling a time of ancient heroes, often involve sword fighting or archery. ] [ Addendum 20211231: Wikipedia raises the same point: “The first substantial argument that chaturanga is much older than [the 6th century] is the fact that the chariot is the most powerful piece on the board, although chariots appear to have been obsolete in warfare for at least five or six centuries. The counter-argument is that they remained prominent in literature. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Tue, 28 Aug 2018
How quickly did dentists start trying to use X-rays?
I had dental x-rays today and I wondered how much time elapsed between the discovery of x-rays and their use by dentists. About two weeks, it turns out. Roentgen's original publication was in late 1895. Dr. Otto Walkhoff made the first x-ray picture of teeth 14 days later. The exposure took 25 minutes. Despite the long exposure time, dentists had already begun using x-rays in their practices in the next two years. Dr. William J. Morton presented the new technology to the New York Odontological Society in April 1896, and his dental radiography, depicting a molar with an artificial crown clearly visible, was published in a dental journal later that year. Morton's subject had been a dried skull. The first dental x-ray of a living human in the United States was made by Charles Edmund Kells in April or May of 1896. In July at the annual meeting of the Southern Dental Association he presented a dental clinic in which he demonstrated the use of his x-ray equipment on live patients. The practice seems to have rapidly become routine. The following story about Morton is not dental-related but I didn't want to leave it out:
(Daniel S. Goldberg, “The Early Days of the X-Ray”) The first dental x-ray machine was manufactured in 1923 by Victor X-ray Company, which later became part of General Electric. In preparing this article I was fortunate to have access to B. Martinez, In a New Light: Early X-Ray Technology in Dentistry, 1890–1955, Arizona State University, 2013. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Tue, 14 Aug 2018A few years ago Katara was very puzzled by traffic jams and any time we were in a traffic slowdown she would ask questions about it. For example, why is traffic still moving, and why does your car eventually get through even though the traffic jam is still there? Why do they persist even after the original cause is repaired? But she seemed unsatisfied with my answers. Eventually in a flash of inspiration I improvised the following example, which seemed to satisfy her, and I still think it's a good explanation. Suppose you have a four-lane highway where each lane can carry up to 25 cars per minute. Right now only 80 cars per minute are going by so the road is well under capacity. But then there is a collision or some other problem that blocks one of the lanes. Now only three lanes are open and they have a capacity of 75 cars per minute. 80 cars per minute are arriving, but only 75 per minute can get past the blockage. What happens now? Five cars more are arriving every minute than can leave, and they will accumulate at the blocked point. After two hours, 600 cars have piled up. But it's not always the same 600 cars! 75 cars per minute are still leaving from the front of the traffic jam. But as they do, 80 cars have arrived at the back to replace them. If you are at the back, there are 600 cars in front of you waiting to leave. After a minute, the 75 at the front have left and there are only 525 cars in front of you; meanwhile 80 more cars have joined the line. After 8 minutes all the cars in front of you have left and you are at the front and can move on. Meanwhile, the traffic jam has gotten bigger. Suppose that after two hours the blockage is cleared. The road again has a capacity of 100 cars per minute. But cars are still arriving at 80 per minute, so each minute 20 more cars can leave than arrived. There are 600 waiting, so it takes another 30 minutes for the entire traffic jam to disperse. This leaves out some important second-order (and third-order) effects. For example, traffic travels more slowly on congested roads; maximum safe speed decreases with following distance. But as a first explanation I think it really nails the phenomenon. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Tue, 01 May 2018
What's in those mysterious cabinets?
Last Monday some folks were working on this thing on Walnut Street. I didn't remember having seen the inside of one before, so I took some pictures of it to look at later. Thanks to the Wonders of the Internet, it didn't take long to figure out what it is for. It is a controller for the traffic lights at the intersection. In particular, the top module in the right-hand picture is a Model 170 ATC HC11 Controller manufactured by McCain Inc, a thirty-year old manufacturer of traffic control devices. The controller runs software developed and supported by McCain, and the cabinet is also made by McCain. The descriptions of the controllers are written in a dense traffic control jargon that I find fascinating but opaque. For example, the 170 controller's product description reads:
I think I understand what variable message signs are, and I can guess at changeable lane control, but what are the sprinklers and pumps for? What is ramp metering? [ Addendum 20180502: readers explain ] The eight-phase dual ring intersection, which I had never heard of before, is an important topic in the traffic control world. I gather that it is a four-way intersection with a four-way traffic light that also has a left-turn-only green arrow portion. The eight “phases” refer to different traffic paths through the intersections that must be separately controlled: even numbers for the four paths through the intersection, and odd numbers 1,3,5,7 for the left-turn-only paths that do not pass through. Some phases conflict; for example phase 5 (left-turning in some direction, say from south to east), conflicts with phase 6 (through-passing heading in the opposite direction) but not with phase 1 (left-turning from north to west). There's plenty of detailed information about this available. For example, the U.S. Federal Highway Administration publishes their Traffic Signal Timing Manual. (Published in 2008, it has since been superseded.) Unfortunately, this seems to be too advanced for me! Section 4.2.1 (“Definitions and Terminology”) is the first place in the document that mentions the dual-ring layout, and it does so without explanation — apparently this is so elementary that anyone reading the Traffic Signal Timing Manual will already be familiar with it:
But these helpful notes explain in more detail: a “ring” is “a sequence of phases that are not compatible and that must time sequentially”. Then we measure the demand for each phase, and there is an interesting and complex design problem: how long should each phase last to optimize traffic flow through the intersection for safety and efficiency? See chapter 3a for more details of how this is done. I love when I discover there is an entire technical domain that I never even suspected existed. If you like this kind of thing, you may enjoy geeking out over the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices, which explains what traffic signs should look like and what each one means. Have you ever noticed that the green guide signs on the highway have up-pointing and down-pointing arrows that are totally different shapes? That's because they have different meanings: the up-pointing arrows mean “go this way” and the down-pointing arrows mean “use this lane”. The MUTCD says what the arrows should look like, how big they should be, and when each one should be used. The MUTCD is the source of one of my favorite quotations:
Words to live by! Programmers in particular should keep this in mind when designing error messages. You could spend your life studying this 864-page manual, and I think some people do. Related geekery: Geometric highway design: how sharply can the Interstate curve and still be safe, and how much do the curves need to be banked? How do you design an interchange between two major highways? How about a highway exit? Here's a highway off-ramp, exit 346A on Pennsylvania I-76 West: Did you know that the long pointy triangle thing is called a “gore”? What happens if you can't make up your mind whether to stay on the highway or take the exit, you drive over the gore, and then smack into the thing beyond it where the roads divides? Well, you might survive, because there is a thing there that is designed to crush when you hit it. It might be a QuadGuard Elite Crash Cushion System, manufactured by Energy Absorption Systems, Inc.. It's such a big world out there, so much to know. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sat, 14 Apr 2018
Colored blobs on electric wires
The high-voltage power lines run along the New Jersey Turnpike for a long way, and there is this one short stretch of road where the wires have red, white, and yellow blobs on them. Google's Street View shot shows them quite clearly.
A thousand feet or so farther down the road, no more blobs. I did Internet searches to find out what the blobs were about, and everyone seemed to agree that they were to make the wires more visible to low-flying aircraft. Which seemed reasonable, but puzzling, because as far as I knew there was no airport in the vicinity. And anyway, why blobs only on that one short stretch of wire? Last week I drove Katara up to New York and when I saw the blobs coming I asked her to photograph them and email me the pictures. She did, and as I hoped, there in the EXIF data in the images was the exact location at which the pictures had been taken: !!(40.2106, -74.57726675)!!. I handed the coordinates to Google and it gave me the answer to my question: The wires with blobs are exactly in line with the runway of nearby Trenton-Robbinsville Airport. Mystery solved! (It is not surprising that I didn't guess this. I had no idea there was a nearby airport. Trenton itself is about ten miles west of there, and its main airport, Trenton-Mercer Airport, is another five miles beyond that.) I have been wondering for years why those blobs were in that exact place, and I am really glad to have it cleared up. Thank you, Google! Dear vision-impaired readers: I wanted to add a description of the
view in the iframed Google Street View picture above. Iframes do not
support an
(The image is a wide-angle shot of a view of the right-hand shoulder of
a highway. There is a low chain-link fence in the foreground, and an
autumnal landscape behind. The sky is blue but partly obscured by
clouds. A high-voltage power pylon is visible at far left and several
sets of wires go from it rightward across the whole top of the
picture, reaching the top right-hand corner. On the upper sets of
wires are evenly-spaced colored balls in orange-red, yellow, and
white. Rotating the street view reveals more colored balls,
stretching into the distance, but only to the north. To the south
there is an overpass, and beyond the overpass the wires continue with
no balls.)
In the future, is there a better place to put a description of an iframed image? Thanks. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Wed, 14 Feb 2018I am almost always interested in utility infrastructure. I see it every day, and often don't think about it. The electric power distribution grid is a gigantic machine, one of the biggest devices ever built, and people spend their whole lives becoming experts on just one part of it. What is it all for, how does it work? What goes wrong, and how do you fix it? Who makes the parts, and how much do they cost? Every day I go outside and see things like these big cylinders: and I wonder what they are. In this case from clues in the environment I was able to guess they were electrical power transformers. Power is distributed on these poles at about seven thousand volts, which is called “medium voltage”. But you do not want 7000-volt power in your house because it would come squirting out of the electric outlets in awesome lightnings and burn everything up. Also most household uses do not want three-phase power, they want single-phase power. So between the pole and the house there is a transformer to change the shape of the electricity to 120V, and that's what these things are. They turn out to be called “distribution transformers” and they are manufactured by — guess who? — General Electric, and they cost a few thousand bucks each. And because of the Wonders of the Internet, I can find out quite a lot about them. The cans are full of mineral oil, or sometimes vegetable oil! (Why are they full of oil? I don't know; I guess for insulation. But I could probably find out.) There are three because that is one way to change the three-phase power to single-phase, something I wish I understood better. Truly, we live in an age of marvels. Anyway, I was having dinner with a friend recently and for some reason we got to talking about the ID plates on utility poles. The poles around here all carry ID numbers, and I imagine that back at the electric company there are giant books listing, for each pole ID number, where the pole is. Probably they computerized this back in the seventies, and the books are moldering in a closet somewhere. As I discussed recently, some of those poles are a hundred years old, and the style of the ID tags has changed over that time: It looks to me like the original style was those oval plates that you see on the left, and that at some point some of the plates started to wear out and were replaced by the yellow digit tags in the middle picture. The most recent poles don't have tags: the identifier is burnt into the pole. Poles in my neighborhood tend to have consecutive numbers. I don't think this was carefully planned. I guess how this happened is: when they sent the poles out on the truck to be installed, they also sent out a bunch of ID plates, perhaps already attached to the poles, or perhaps to be attached onsite. The plates would already have the numbers on them, and when you grab a bunch of them out of the stack they will naturally tend to have consecutive numbers, as in the pictures above, because that's how they were manufactured. So the poles in a vicinity will tend to have numbers that are close together, until they don't, because at that point the truck had to go back for more poles. So although you might find poles 79518–79604 in my neighborhood, poles 79605–79923 might be in a completely different part of the city. Later on someone was inspecting pole 79557 (middle picture) and noticed that the number plate was wearing out. So they pried it off and replaced it with the yellow digit tag, which is much newer than the pole itself. The inspector will have a bunch of empty frames and a box full of digits, so they put up a new tag with the old ID number. But sometime more recently they switched to these new-style poles with numbers burnt into them at the factory, in a different format than before. I have tried to imagine what the number-burning device looks like, but I'm not at all sure. Is it like a heated printing press, or perhaps a sort of configurable branding iron? Or is it more like a big soldering iron that is on a computer-controlled axis and writes the numbers on like a pen? I wonder what the old plates are made of. They have to last a long time. For a while I was puzzled. Steel would rust; and I thought even stainless steel wouldn't last as long as these tags need to. Aluminum is expensive. Tin degrades at low temperatures. But thanks to the Wonders of the Internet, I have learned that, properly made, stainless steel tags can indeed last long enough; the web site of the British Stainless Steel Association advises me that even in rough conditions, stainless steel with the right composition can last 85 years outdoors. I will do what I should have done in the first place, and go test the tags with a magnet to see if they are ferrous. Here's where some knucklehead in the Streets Department decided to nail a No Parking sign right over the ID tag: Another thing you can see on these poles is inspection tags: Without the Internet I would just have to wonder what these were and what OSMOSE meant. It is the name of the company that PECO has hired to inspect and maintain the poles. They specialize in this kind of work. This old pole was inspected in 2001 and again in 2013. The dated inspection tag from the previous inspection is lost but we can see a pie-shaped tag that says WOODFUME. You may recall from my previous article that the main killer of wood poles is fungal infection. Woodfume is an inexpensive fumigant that retards pole decay. It propagates into the pole and decomposes into MITC (methyl isothiocyanate). By 2001 PECO had switched to using MITC-FUME, which impregnates the pole directly with MITC. Osmose will be glad to tell you all about it. (Warning: Probably at least 30% of the surmise in this article is wrong.) [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Tue, 16 Jan 2018In an earlier article, I said:
This turns out to be no worry at all. The isotope in the pacemaker batteries is Pu-238, which is entirely unsuitable for making weapons. Pu-238 is very dangerous, being both radioactive and highly poisonous, but it is not fissile. In a fission chain reaction, an already-unstable atomic nucleus is hit by a high-energy neutron, which causes it to fragment into two lighter nuclei. This releases a large amount of nuclear binding energy, and more neutrons which continue the reaction. The only nuclei that are unstable enough for this to work have an odd number of neutrons (for reasons I do not understand), and Pu-238 does not fit the bill (Z=94, N=144). Plutonium fission weapons are made from Pu-241 (N=147), and this must be carefully separated from the Pu-238, which tends to impede the chain reaction. Similarly, uranium weapons are made from U-235, and this must be painstakingly extracted from the vastly more common U-238 with high-powered centrifuges. But I did not know this when I spent part of the weekend thinking about the difficulties of collecting plutonium from pacemakers, and discussing it with a correspondent. It was an interesting exercise, so I will publish it anyway. While mulling it over I tried to identify the biggest real risks, and what would be the most effective defenses against them. An exercise one does when considering security problems is to switch hats: if I were the bad guy, what would I try? What problems would I have to overcome, and what measures would most effectively frustrate me? So I put on my Black Hat and tried to think about it from the viewpoint of someone, let's call him George, who wants to build a nuclear weapon from pacemaker batteries. I calculated (I hope correctly) that a pacemaker had around 0.165 mg of plutonium, and learned online that one needs 4–6 kg to make a plutonium bomb. With skill and experience one can supposedly get this down to 2 kg, but let's take 25,000 pacemakers as the number George would need. How could he get this much plutonium? (Please bear in mind that the following discussion is entirely theoretical, and takes place in an imaginary world in which plutonium-powered pacemakers are common. In the real world, they were never common, and the last ones were manufactured in 1974. And this imaginary world exists in an imaginary universe in which plutonium-238 can sustain a chain reaction.) Obviously, George's top target would be the factory where the pacemakers are made. Best of all is to steal the plutonium before it is encapsulated, say just after it has been delivered to the factory. But equally obviously, this is where the security will be the most concentrated. The factory is not as juicy a target as it might seem at first. Plutonium is radioactive and toxic, so they do not want to have to store a lot of it on-site. They will have it delivered as late as possible, in amounts as small as possible, and use it up as quickly as possible. The chances of George getting a big haul of plutonium by hitting the factory seem poor. Second-best is for George to steal the capsules in bulk before they are turned into pacemakers. Third-best is for him to steal cartons of pacemakers from the factory or from the hospitals they are delivered to. But bulk theft is not something George can pull off over and over. The authorities will quickly realize that someone is going after pacemakers. And after George's first heist, everyone will be looking for him. If the project gets to the point of retrieving pacemakers after they are implanted, George's problems multiply enormously. It is impractical to remove a pacemaker from a living subject. George would need to steal them from funeral homes or crematoria. These places are required to collect the capsules for return to Oak Ridge, and conceivably might sometimes have more than one on hand at a time, but probably not more than a few. It's going to be a long slog, and it beggars belief that George would be able to get enough pacemakers this way without someone noticing that something was up. The last resort is for George to locate people with pacemakers, murder, and dissect them. Even if George somehow knows whom to kill, he'd have to be Merlin to arrange the murder of 25,000 people without getting caught. Merlin doesn't need plutonium; he can create nuclear fireballs just by waving his magic wand. If George does manage to collect the 25,000 capsules, his problems get even worse. He has to open the titanium capsules, already difficult because they are carefully made to be hard to open — you wouldn't want the plutonium getting out, would you? He has to open them without spilling the plutonium, or inhaling it, or making any sort of mess while extracting it. He has to do this 25,000 times without messing up, and without ingesting the tiniest speck of plutonium, or he is dead. He has to find a way to safely store the plutonium while he is accumulating it. He has to keep it hidden not only from people actively looking for him — and they will be, with great yearning — but also from every Joe Blow who happens to be checking background radiation levels in the vicinity. And George cannot afford to take his time and be cautious. He is racing against the clock, because every 464 days, 1% of his accumulated stock, however much that is, will turn into U-234 and be useless. The more he accumulates, the harder it is to keep up. If George has 25,000 pacemakers in a warehouse, ready for processing, one pacemaker-worth of Pu-238 will be going bad every two days. In connection with this, my correspondent brought up the famous case of the Radioactive Boy Scout, which I had had in mind. (The RBS gathered a recklessly large amount of americium-241 from common household smoke detectors.) Ignoring again the unsuitability of americium for fission weapons (an even number of neutrons again), the project is obviously much easier. At the very least, you can try calling up a manufacturer of smoke alarms, telling them you are building an apartment complex in Seoul, and that you need to bulk-order 2,000 units or whatever. You can rob the warehouse at Home Depot. You can even buy them online. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sat, 13 Jan 2018
How do plutonium-powered pacemakers work?
I woke up in the middle of the night wondering: Some people have implanted medical devices, such as pacemakers, that are plutonium-powered. How the hell does that work? The plutonium gets hot, but what then? You need electricity. Surely there is not a tiny turbine generator in there! There is not, and the answer turns out to be really interesting, and to involve a bunch of physics I didn't know. If one end of a wire is hotter than the other, electrons tend to diffuse from the hot end to the cold end; the amount of diffusion depends on the material and the temperature. Take two wires of different metals and join them into a loop. (This is called a thermocouple.) Make one of the joints hotter than the other. Electrons will diffuse from the hot joint to the cold joint. If there were only one metal, this would not be very interesting. But the electrons diffuse better through one wire (say wire A) than through the other (B), and this means that there will be net electron flow from the hot side down through wire A and then back up through B, creating an electric current. This is called the Seebeck effect. The potential difference between the joints is proportional to the temperature difference, on the order of a few hundred microvolts per kelvin. Because of this simple proportionality, the main use of the thermocouple is to measure the temperature difference by measuring the voltage or current induced in the wire. But if you don't need a lot of power, the thermocouple can be used as a current source. In practice they don't use a single loop, but rather a long loop of alternating metals, with many junctions: This is called a thermopile; when the heat source is radioactive material, as here, the device is called a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG). The illustration shows the thermocouples strung out in a long line, but in an actual RTG you put the plutonium in a capsule and put the thermocouples in the wall of the capsule, with the outside joints attached to heat sinks. The plutonium heats up the inside joints to generate the current. RTGs are more commonly used to power spacecraft, but there are a few dozen people still in the U.S. with plutonium-powered thermopile batteries in their pacemakers. In pacemakers, the plutonium was sealed inside a titanium capsule, which was strong enough to survive an accident (such as a bullet impact or auto collision) or cremation. But Wikipedia says the technique was abandoned because of worries that the capsule wouldn't be absolutely certain to survive a cremation. (Cremation temperatures go up to around 1000°C; titanium melts at 1668°C.) Loose plutonium in the environment would be Very Bad. (I wondered if there wasn't also worry about plutonium being recovered for weapons use, but the risk seems much smaller: you need several kilograms of plutonium to make a bomb, and a pacemaker has only around 135 mg, if I did the conversion from curies correctly. Even so, if I were in charge of keeping plutonium out of the wrong hands, I would still worry about this. It does not seem totally out of the realm of possibility that someone could collect 25,000 pacemakers. Opening 25,000 titanium capsules does sound rather tedious.) Earlier a completely different nuclear-powered pacemaker was tried, based on promethium-powered betavoltaics. This is not a heat-conversion process. Instead, a semiconductor does some quantum physics magic with the electrons produced by radioactive beta decay. This was first demonstrated by Henry Moseley in 1913. Moseley is better-known for discovering that atoms have an atomic number, thus explaining the periodic table. The periodic table had previously been formulated in terms of atomic mass, which put some of the elements in the wrong order. Scientists guessed they were in the wrong order, because the periodicity didn't work, but they weren't sure why. Moseley was able to compute the electric charge of the atomic nucleus from spectrographic observations. I have often wondered what else Moseley would have done if he had not been killed in the European war at the age of 27. It took a while to gather the information about this. Several of Wikipedia's articles on the topic are not up to their usual standards. The one about the radioisotope thermoelectric generator is excellent, though. Thermopile illustration is by FluxTeq (Own work) CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. [ Addendum 20180115: Commenters on Hacker News have pointed out that my concern about the use of plutonium in fission weapons is easily satisfied: the fuel in the batteries is Pu-238, which is not fissile. The plutonium to use in bombs is Pu-241, and indeed, when building a plutonium bomb you need to remove as much Pu-238 as possible, to prevent its non-fissile nuclei from interfering with the chain reaction. Interestingly, you can tell this from looking at the numbers: atomic nuclei with an odd number of neutrons are much more fissile than those with an even number. Plutonium is atomic number 94, so Pu-238 has an even number of neutrons and is not usable. The other isotope commonly used in fission is U-235, with 143 neutrons. I had planned to publish a long article today detailing the difficulties of gathering enough plutonium from pacemakers to make a bomb, but now I think I might have to rewrite it as a comedy. ] [ Addendum 20170116: I published it anyway, with some editing. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Fri, 08 Dec 2017I drink a lot of coffee at work. Folks there often make a pot of coffee and leave it on the counter to share, but they never make decaf and I drink a lot of decaf, so I make a lot of single cups of decaf, which is time-consuming. More and more people swear by the AeroPress, which they say makes single cups of excellent coffee very quickly. It costs about $30. I got one and tried it out. The AeroPress works like this: There is a cylinder, open at the top, closed but perforated at the bottom. You put a precut circle of filter paper into the bottom and add ground coffee on top of it. You put the cylinder onto your cup, then pour hot water into the cylinder. So far this is just a regular single-cup drip process. But after a minute, you insert a plunger into the cylinder and push it down gently but firmly. The water is forced through the grounds and the filter into the cup. In theory the press process makes better coffee than drip, because there is less opportunity to over-extract. The AeroPress coffee is good, but I did not think it tasted better than drip. Maybe someone else, fussier about coffee than I am, would be more impressed. Another the selling points is that the process fully extracts the grounds, but much more quickly than a regular pourover cone, because you don't have to wait for all the dripping. One web site boasts:
It does shorten the brew time. But you lose all the time again washing out the equipment. The pourover cone is easier to clean and dry. I would rather stand around watching the coffee drip through the cone than spend the same amount of time washing the coffee press. The same web site says:
This didn't work for me. I can't put it in my desk because it is still wet and it is difficult to dry. So it sits on a paper towel on top of my desk, taking up space and getting in the way. The cone dries faster. The picture above makes it look very complicated, but the only interesting part itself is the press itself, shown at upper left. All the other stuff is unimportant. The intriguing hexagon thing is a a funnel you can stick in the top of the cylinder if you're not sure you can aim the water properly. The scoop is a scoop. The flat thing is for stirring the coffee in the cylinder, in case you don't know how to use a spoon. I threw mine away. The thing on the right is a holder for the unused paper filters. I suspect they were afraid people wouldn't want to pay $30 for just the press, so they bundled in all this extra stuff to make it look like you are getting more than you actually are. In the computer biz we call this “shovelware”. My review: The AeroPress gets a solid “meh”. You can get a drip cone for five bucks. The advantages of the $30 AeroPress did not materialize for me, and are certainly not worth paying six times as much. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Fri, 01 Dec 2017
Slaughter electric needle injector
[ This article appeared yesterday on At the end of the game Portal, one of the AI cores you must destroy starts reciting GLaDOS's cake recipe. Like GLaDOS herself, it starts reasonably enough, and then goes wildly off the rails. One of the more memorable ingredients from the end of the list is “slaughter electric needle injector”. I looked into this a bit and I learned that there really is a slaughter electric needle injector. It is not nearly as ominous as it sounds. The needles themselves are not electric, and it has nothing to do with slaughter. Rather, it is a handheld electric-powered needle injector tool that happens to be manufactured by the Slaughter Instrument Company, Inc, founded more than a hundred years ago by Mr. George Slaughter. Slaughter Co. manufactures tools for morticians and enbalmers
preparing bodies for burial. The electric needle
injector
is one such tool; they also manufacture a cordless electric needle
injector,
mentioned later as part of the same cake recipe.
The needles themselves are quite benign. They are small, with delicate six-inch brass wires attached, and cost about twenty-five cents each. The needles and the injector are used for securing a corpse's mouth so that it doesn't yawn open during the funeral. One needle is injected into the upper jaw and one into the lower, and then the wires are twisted together, holding the mouth shut. The mortician clips off the excess wire and tucks the ends into the mouth. Only two needles are needed per mouth. There are a number of explanatory videos on YouTube, but I was not able to find any actual demonstrations. [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Wed, 20 Sep 2017
Gompertz' law for wooden utility poles
Gompertz' law says that the human death rate increases exponentially with age. That is, if your chance of dying during this year is !!x!!, then your chance of dying during next year is !!cx!! for some constant !!c>1!!. The death rate doubles every 8 years, so the constant !!c!! is empirically around !!2^{1/8} \approx 1.09!!. This is of course mathematically incoherent, since it predicts that sufficiently old people will have a mortality rate greater than 100%. But a number of things are both true and mathematically incoherent, and this is one of them. (Zipf's law is another.) The Gravity and Levity blog has a superb article about this from 2009 that reasons backwards from Gompertz' law to rule out certain theories of mortality, such as the theory that death is due to the random whims of a fickle god. (If death were entirely random, and if you had a 50% chance of making it to age 70, then you would have a 25% chance of living to 140, and a 12.5% chance of living to 210, which we know is not the case.) Gravity and Levity says:
To this list I will add wooden utility poles. A couple of weeks ago Toph asked me why there were so many old rusty staples embedded in the utility poles near our house, and this is easy to explain: people staple up their yard sale posters and lost-cat flyers, and then the posters and flyers go away and leave behind the staples. (I once went out with a pliers and extracted a few dozen staples from one pole; it was very satisfying but ultimately ineffective.) If new flyer is stapled up each week, that is 52 staples per year, and 1040 in twenty years. If we agree that 20 years is the absolute minimum plausible lifetime of a pole, we should not be surprised if typical poles have hundreds or thousands of staples each. But this morning I got to wondering what is the expected lifetime of a wooden utility pole? I guessed it was probably in the range of 40 to 70 years. And happily, because of the Wonders of the Internet, I could look it up right then and there, on the way to the trolley stop, and spend my commute time reading about it. It was not hard to find an authoritative sounding and widely-cited 2012 study by electric utility consultants Quanta Technology. Summary: Most poles die because of fungal rot, so pole lifetime varies widely depending on the local climate. An unmaintained pole will last 50–60 years in a cold or dry climate and 30-40 years in a hot wet climate. Well-maintained poles will last around twice as long. Anyway, Gompertz' law holds for wooden utility poles also. According to the study:
The Quanta study presents this chart, taken from the (then forthcoming) 2012 book Aging Power Delivery Infrastructures: The solid line is the pole failure rate for a particular unnamed utility company in a median climate. The failure rate with increasing age clearly increases exponentially, as Gompertz' law dictates, doubling every 12½ years or so: Around 1 in 200 poles fails at age 50, around 1 in 100 of the remaining poles fails at age 62.5, and around 1 in 50 of the remaining poles fails at age 75. (The dashed and dotted lines represent poles that are removed from service for other reasons.) From Gompertz' law itself and a minimum of data, we can extrapolate the maximum human lifespan. The death rate for 65-year-old women is around 1%, and since it doubles every 8 years or so, we find that 50% of women are dead by age 88, and all but the most outlying outliers are dead by age 120. And indeed, the human longevity record is currently attributed to Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 at the age of 122½. Similarly we can extrapolate the maximum service time for a wooden utility pole. Half of them make it to 90 years, but if you have a large installed base of 110-year-old poles you will be replacing about one-seventh of them every year and it might make more sense to rip them all out at once and start over. At a rate of one yard sale per week, a 110-year-old pole will have accumulated 5,720 staples. The Quanta study does not address deterioration of utility poles due to the accumulation of rusty staples. [ Addendum 20220521: More about utility poles and their maintenance ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sun, 06 Aug 2017Yesterday I discussed an interesting failure on the part of Shazam, a phone app that can recognize music by listening to it. I said I had no idea how it worked, but I did not let that stop me from pulling the following vague speculation out of my butt:
Julia Evans provided me with the following reference: “An Industrial-Strength Audio Search Algorithm” by Avery Li-Chun Wang of Shazam Entertainment, Ltd. Unfortunately the paper has no date, but on internal evidence it seems to be from around 2002–2006. M. Evans summarizes the algorithm as follows:
She continues:
Thanks Julia! Moving upwards from the link Julia gave me, I found a folder of papers maintained by Dan Ellis, formerly of the Columbia University Electrical Engineering department, founder of Columbia's LabROSA, the Laboratory for the Recognition and Organization of Speech and Audio, and now a Google research scientist. In the previous article, I asked about research on machine identification of composers or musical genre. Some of M. Ellis’s LabROSA research is closely related to this. See for example: There is a lot of interesting-looking material available there for free. Check it out. (Is there a word for when someone gives you a URL like
[Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Sat, 05 Aug 2017
Another example of a machine perception failure
IEEE Spectrum has yet another article about fooling computer vision algorithms with subtle changes that humans don't even notice. For more details and references to the literature, see this excellent article by Andrej Karpathy. Here is a frequently-reprinted example: The classifier is 57.7% confident that the left-hand image is a panda. When the image is perturbed—by less than one part in 140—with the seemingly-random pattern of colored dots to produce the seemingly identical image on the right, the classifier identifies it as a gibbon with 99.3% confidence. (Illustration from Goodfellow, Shlens, and Szegedy, “Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples”, International Conference on Learning Representations 2015.) Here's an interesting complementary example that surprised me recently. I have the Shazam app on my phone. When activated, the app tries to listen for music, and then it tries to tell you what the music was. If I'm in the pharmacy and the background music is something I like but don't recognize, I can ask Shazam what it is, and it will tell me. Magic! Earlier this year I was in the car listening to the radio and I tried this, and it failed. I ran it again, and it failed again. I pulled over to the side of the road, activated the app, and held the phone's microphone up to the car's speaker so that Shazam could hear clearly. Shazam was totally stumped. So I resumed driving and paid careful attention when the piece ended so that I wouldn't miss when the announcer said what it was. It had been Mendelssohn's fourth symphony. Shazam can easily identify Mendelssohn's fourth symphony, as I confirmed later. In fact, it can identify it much better than a human can—in some ways. When I tested it, it immediately recognized not only the piece, but the exact recording I used for the test: it was the 1985 recording by the London Symphony Orchestra, conducted by Claudio Abbado. Why had Shazam failed to recognize the piece on the radio? Too much background noise? Poor Internet connectivity? Nope. It was because the piece was being performed live by the Detroit Symphony Orchestra and as far as Shazam was concerned, it had never heard it before. For a human familiar with Mendelssohn's fourth symphony, this would be of no import. This person would recognize Mendelssohn's fourth symphony whenever it was played by any halfway-competent orchestra. But Shazam doesn't hear the way people do. I don't know what it does (really I have no idea), but I imagine that it does some signal processing to remove background noise, accumulates digests of short sections of the audio data, and then matches these digests against a database of similar digests, compiled in advance from a corpus of recordings. The Detroit Orchestra's live performance hadn't been in the corpus, so there was no match in the database. Shazam's corpus has probably a couple of dozen recordings of Mendelssohn's fourth symphony, but it has no idea that all these recordings are of the same piece, or that they sound very similar, because to Shazam they don't sound similar at all. I imagine it doesn't even have a notion of whether two pieces in the corpus sound similar, because it knows them only as distillations of short snatches, and it never compares corpus recordings with one another. Whatever Shazam is doing is completely different from what people do. One might say it hears the sound but not the music, just as the classifier from the Goodfellow paper sees the image but not the panda. I wonder about a different example. When I hear an unfamiliar piece on the radio, I can often guess who wrote it. “Aha,” I say. “This is obviously Dvořák.” And then more often than not I am right, and even when I am not right, I am usually very close. (For some reasonable meaning of “close” that might be impossible to explain to Shazam.) In one particularly surprising case, I did this with Daft Punk, at that time having heard exactly two Daft Punk songs in my life. Upon hearing this third one, I said to myself “Huh, this sounds just like those Daft Punk songs.” I not claiming a lot of credit for this; Daft Punk has a very distinctive sound. I bring it up just to suggest that whatever magic Shazam is using probably can't do this even a little bit. Do any of my Gentle Readers know anything about research on the problem of getting a machine to identify the author or genre of music from listening to it? [ Addendum 20170806: Julia Evans has provided a technical reference and a high-level summary of Shazam's algorithm. This also led me to a trove of related research. ] [Other articles in category /tech] permanent link Fri, 01 Jul 2016
Don't tug on that, you never know what it might be attached to
This is a story about a very interesting bug that I tracked down yesterday. It was causing a bad effect very far from where the bug actually was. emacsclientThe
and it sends the main This was more important in the olden days when Emacs was big and bloated and took a long time to start up. (They used to joke that “Emacs” was an abbreviation for “Eight Megs And Constantly Swapping”. Eight megs!) But even today it's still useful, say from shell scripts that need to run an editor. Here's the reason I was running it. I have a very nice shell script,
called
It is essentially a wrapper around
in the shell and get a menu of the files related to the wizard, select the ones I actually want to edit, and they show up in Emacs. This is more convenient than using Emacs itself to find and open them. I use it many times a day. Or rather, I did until this week, when it suddenly stopped working.
Everything ran fine until the execution of
(A socket is a facility that enables interprocess communication, in
this case between This message is familiar. It usually means that I have forgotten to
tell Emacs to start listening for
Finding the socketSo the first question is: why can't The second one is easily answered; I ran
which means it's looking for the socket at The question of where Emacs actually put the socket file was a little
trickier. I did not run Emacs under I don't exactly remember now how I figured this out, but I think now
that I probably made an educated guess, something like:
(The I confirmed that this was the correct file by typing Why the disagreement?Now the question is: Why is
to see if anything relevant turned up. And sure enough there was:
When programs want to create tmporary files and directories, they normally do it in With this clear explanation in hand, I began to report the bug in
Emacs, using Emacs popped up a buffer with full version information and invited me to write down the steps to reproduce the problem. So I wrote down
and as I did that I ran those commands in the shell. Then I wrote
and I did that in Emacs also. But instead of claiming there was no
such variable, Emacs cheerfully informed me that the value of (There is an important lesson here! To submit a bug report, you find a minimal demonstration. But then you also try the minimal demonstration exactly as you reported it. Because of what just happened! Had I sent off that bug report, I would have wasted everyone else's time, and even worse, I would have looked like a fool.) My minimal demonstration did not demonstrate. Something else was going on. Why no
|
--> You are now talking on #ubuntu | ||
23:37 | <yrlnry> | I upgraded to HH this afternoon. Since the upgrade, when I select a URL in gnome-terminal and then pick the "open this link" menu item, the link doesn't open in my browser. Instead, I get a dialog that says "Could not open the address "http://...": There was an error launching the default action command associated with this location." How can I fix this, or find out what the "error" was? |
23:38 | <lpkmgj> | yrlnry: this happeds in Windows |
yrlnry: i get that in Windows 2 | ||
23:39 | <yrlnry> | lpkmgj: thanks! that fixed my problem! |
<lpkmgj> | yrlnry: sarcasm? | |
<yrlnry> | lpkmgj: No! | |
<lpkmgj> | yrlnry: right .... | |
23:40 | <yrlnry> | lpkmgj: WHen you said that, I realized that the problem was that HH had installed Firefox 3, and that the terminal program wants to use the default browser, which is FF2, which is no longer present since the upgrade. |
<yrlnry> | lpkmgj: so I told FF3 to make itself the default browser, and the problem went away. | |
<lpkmgj> | yrlnry: oh, well glad i helped : ) |
(I have changed the name of the other person.)
[Other articles in category /tech] permanent link
Tue, 20 Mar 2007
How big is a five-gallon jug?
Office water coolers in the United States commonly take five-gallon
jugs of water. You are probably familiar with these jugs, but here is
a picture of a jug, to refresh your memory. A random graduate student
has been provided for scale:
Here's today's riddle: Can you estimate the volume of the jug in cubic feet? "Estimate" means by eyeballing it, not by calculating, measuring, consulting reference works, etc. But feel free to look at an actual jug if you have one handy.
Once you've settled on your estimate, compare it with the correct answer, below.
It is about 2/3 of a cubic foot. One gallon contains about 231 cubic inches. Five gallons contain about 1155 cubic inches. One cubic foot contains 12×12×12 = 1728 cubic inches. |
Hard to believe, isn't it? ("Strange but true.") I took one of these jugs around my office last year, asking everyone to guess how big it was; nobody came close. People typically guessed that it was about three times as big as it actually is.
This puzzle totally does not work anywhere except in the United States. The corresponding puzzle for the rest of the world is "Here is a twenty-liter jug. Can you guess the volume of the jug in liters?" I suppose this is an argument in favor of the metric system.
[Other articles in category /tech] permanent link
Wed, 14 Mar 2007 The subject of really narrow buildings came up on Reddit last week, and my post about the "Spite House" was well-received. Since pictures of it seem to be hard to come by, I scanned the pictures from New York's Architectural Holdouts by Andrew Alpern and Seymour Durst.The book is worth checking out, particularly if you are familiar with New York. The canonical architectural holdout occurs when a developer is trying to assemble a large parcel of land for a big building, and a little old lady refuses to sell her home. The book is full of astonishing pictures: skyscrapers built with holdout buildings embedded inside them and with holdout buildings wedged underneath them. Skyscrapers built in the shape of the letter E (with the holdouts between the prongs), the letter C (with the holdout in the cup), and the letter Y (with the holdout in the fork).
Photo credit: Jerry Callen |
But anyway, the Spite House. The story, as told by Alpern and Durst, is that around 1882, Patrick McQuade wanted to build some houses on 82nd Street at Lexington Avenue. The adjoining parcel of land, around the corner on Lexington, was owned by Joseph Richardson, shown at left. If McQuade could acquire this parcel, he would be able to extend his building all the way to Lexington Avenue, and put windows on that side of the building. No problem: the parcel was a strip of land 102 feet long and five feet wide along Lexington, useless for any other purpose. Surely Richardson would sell.
McQuade offered $1,000, but Richardson demanded $5,000. Unwilling to pay, McQuade started building his houses anyway, complete with windows looking out on Richardson's five-foot-wide strip, which was unbuildable. Or so he thought.
Richardson built a building five
feet wide and 102 feet long, blocking McQuade's Lexington Avenue
windows. (Click the pictures for large versions.)
The building soon became known as the "Spite House". The photograph above was taken around 1895. Lexington Avenue is torn up for maintenance in this picture.
Richardson took advantage of a clause in the building codes that allowed him to build bay window extensions in his building. This allowed him to extend its maximum width 2'3" beyond the boundary of the lot. (Alpern and Durst say "In those days, such encroachments on the public sidewalks were not prohibited.") The rooms of the Spite House were in these bay window extensions, connected by extremely narrow hallways:
After construction was completed, Richardson moved into the Spite House and lived there until he died in 1897. The pictures below and at left are from that time.
The edge-on photograph below, showing the Spite House's 3'4" frontage on 82nd Street, was taken in 1912.
The Spite House was demolished in 1915.
All other pictures and photographs are in the public domain. I took them from pages 122–124 of the book New York's Architectural Holdouts, by Alpern and Durst. The original sources, as given by Alpern and Durst, are as follows:
Collection of Andrew Alpern. | |
January 1897 issue of Scientific American.
| |
New York Journal, 5 June 1897 | |
New York Public Service Commission |
[Other articles in category /tech] permanent link
Mon, 20 Mar 2006
The 20 most important tools
Forbes magazine recently ran an article on The
20 Most Important Tools. I always groan when I hear that some big
magazine has done something like that, because I know what kind of
dumbass mistake they are going to make: they are going to put Post-It
notes at #14. The Forbes folks did not make this
mistake. None of their 20 items were complete losers.
In fact, I think they did a pretty good job. They assembled a panel of experts, including Don Norman and Henry Petroski; they also polled their readers and their senior editors. The final list isn't the one I would have written, but I don't claim that it's worse than one I would have written.
Criticizing such a list is easy—too easy. To make the rules fair, it's not enough to identify items that I think should have been included. I must identify items that I think nearly everyone would agree should have been included.
Unfortunately, I think there are several of these.
First, to the good points of the list. It doesn't contain any major clinkers. And it does cover many vitally important tools. It provokes thought, which is never a bad thing. It was assembled thoughtfully, so one is not tempted to dismiss any item without first carefully considering why it is in there.
Here's the Forbes list:
But here is my first quibble: it's not really clear why some items stood for whole groups, and others didn't. The explanatory material points out that five other items on the list are special cases of the knife: the scythe, lathe, saw, chisel, and sword. The inclusion of the knife as #1 on the list is, I think, completely inarguable. The power and the antiquity of the knife would put it in the top twenty already.
Consider its unmatched versatility as well and you just push it up into first place, and beyond. Make a big knife, and you have a machete; bigger still, and you have a sword. Put a knife on the end of a stick and you have an axe; put it on a longer stick and you have a spear. Bend a knife into a circle and you have a sickle; make a bigger sickle and you have a scythe. Put two knives on a hinge or a spring and you have shears. Any of these could be argued to be in the top twenty. When you consider that all these tools are minor variations on the same device, you inevitably come to the conclusion that the knife is a tool that, like Babe Ruth among baseball players, is ridiculously overqualified even for inclusion with the greatest.
But Forbes people gave the sword a separate listing (#8), and a sword is just a big knife. It serves the same function as a knife and it serves it in the same mechanical way. So it's hard to understand why the Forbes people listed them separately. If you're going to list the sword separately, how can you omit the axe or the spear? Grouping the items is a good idea, because otherwise the list starts to look like the twenty most important ways to use a knife. But I would have argued for listing the sword, axe, chisel, and scythe under the heading of "knife".
I find the other knifelike devices less objectionable. The saw is fundamentally different from a knife, because it is made and used differently, and operates in a different way: it is many tiny knives all working in the same direction. And the lathe is not a special case of the knife, because the essential feature of the lathe is not the sharp part but the spinning part. (I wouldn't consider the lathe a small, portable implement, but more about that below.)
No, I take it back. It's not like any of those things. Those things should all be described as analogous to leaving the hammer of the list of the twenty most important tools, not the other way around.
Was the hammer omitted because it's not a simple, portable physical implement? Clearly not.
Was the hammer omitted because it's an abstract fundamental machine, like the lever? Is a hammer really just a lever? Not unless a knife is just a wedge.
Is the hammer subsumed in one of the other items? I can't see any candidates. None of the other items is for pounding.
Did the Forbes panel just forget about it? That would have been weird enough. Two thousand Forbes readers, ten editors, and Henry Petroski all forgot about the hammer? Impossible. If you stop someone on the street and ask them to name a tool, odds are that they will say "hammer". And how can you make a list of the twenty most important tools, include the chisel as #20, and omit the hammer, without which the chisel is completely useless?
The article says:
We eventually came up with a list of more than 100 candidate tools. There was a great deal of overlap, so we collapsed similar items into a single category, and chose one tool to represent them. That left us with a final list of 33 items, each one a part of a particular class or style of tool; for instance, the spoon is representative of all eating utensils.Perhaps the hammer was one of the 13 classes of tools that didn't make the cut? The writer of the article, David M. Ewalt, kindly provided me with a complete list of the 33 classes, including the also-rans. The hammer was not with the also-rans; I'm not sure if I find that more or less disturbing.
"Gas chromatograph" seems to be someone's attempt to steer the list away from ancient inventions and to include some modern tools on the list. This is a worthy purpose. But I wish that they had thought of a better representative than the gas chromatograph. It seems to me that most tools of modern invention serve only very specialized purposes. The gas chromatograph is not an exception. I've never used a gas chromatograph. I don't think I know anyone who has. I've never seen a gas chromatograph. I might well go to the grave without using one. How is it possible that the gas chromatograph is one of the 33 most important tools of all time, beating out the hammer?
With "syringe", I imagine the authors were thinking of the hypodermic needle, but maybe they really were thinking of the syringe in general, which would include the meat syringe, the vacuum pipette, and other similar devices. If the latter, I have no serious complaint; I just wanted to point out the possible misunderstanding.
"Paper clip" is just the kind of thing I was afraid would appear. The paper clip isn't one of the top hundred most important tools, perhaps not even one of the top thousand. If the hammer were annihilated, civilization would collapse within twenty-four hours. If the paper clip were annihilated, we would shrug, we would go back to using pins, staples, and ribbons to bind our papers, and life would go on. If the pin isn't qualified for the list, the paper clip isn't even close.
I was speechless at the inclusion of the corkscrew in a list of essential tools that omits both bottles and corks, reduced to incoherent spluttering. The best I could do was mutter "insane".
I don't know exactly what was intended by "remote control", but it doesn't satisfy the criteria. The idea of remote control is certainly important, but this is not a list of important ideas or important functions but important tools. If there were a truly universal remote control that I could carry around with me everywhere and use to open doors, extinguish lights, summon vehicles, and so on, I might agree. But each particular remote control is too specialized to be of any major value.
Putting the computer mouse on the list of the twenty (or even 33) most important tools is like putting the pastrami on rye on the list of the twenty most important foods. Tasty, yes. Important? Surely not. In the same class as the soybean? Absurd.
The floppy disk is already obsolete.
But the telescope has a cousin, the microscope. Is the telescope's scientific value comparable to that of the microscope? I would argue that it is not. Certainly the microscope is much more widely used, in almost any branch of science you could name except astronomy. The telescope enabled the discovery that the earth is not the center of the universe, a discovery of vast philosophical importance. Did the microscope lead to fundamental discoveries of equal importance? I would argue that the discovery of microorganisms was at least as important in every way.
Arguing that "X is in the list, so Y should be too" is a slippery slope that leads to a really fat list in which each mistaken inclusion justifies a dozen more. I won't make that argument in this article. But the reverse argument, that "Y isn't in the list so X shouldn't be either", is much safer. If the microscope isn't important enough to make the list, then neither is the telescope.
I'm boggled; I don't know what the level is doing there. But the fact that my most serious complaint about any particular item is with item #18 shows how well-done I think the list is overall.
There are small, portable lathes. But there are also small, portable looms, hand looms, and so on. I think the loom has a better claim to being a tool in this sense than a lathe does. Cloth is surely one of the ten most important technological inventions of all time, up there with the knife, the gun, and the pot. Cloth does not belong on the Forbes list, because it is not a tool. But omission of the loom surprises me.
The pot made the list, but not the potter's wheel. An important omission, perhaps? I think not, that a good argument could be made that the potter's wheel was only an incremental improvement, not suitable for the top twenty.
I do wonder what happened to rope; here I could only imagine that they decided it wasn't a "tool". (M. Ewalt says that he is at a loss to explain the omission of rope.) And where's the basket? Here I can't imagine what the argument was.
The bag! Where is the bag?
I will say it again: Where is the bag?
Is the bag a small, portable implement? Yes, almost by definition. "Stop for a minute and think about what you've done today--every job you've accomplished, every task you've completed." begins the Forbes article. Did I have my bag with me? I did indeed. I started the day by opening up a bag of grapes to eat for breakfast. Then I made my lunch and put it in a bag, which I put into another, larger bag with my pens and work papers. Then I carried it all to work on my bicycle. Without the bag, I couldn't have carried these things to work. Could I have gotten that stuff to work without a bag? No, I would not have had my hands free to steer the bicycle. What if I had walked, instead of riding? Still probably not; I would have dropped all the stuff.
The bag, guys!. Which of you comes to work in the morning without a bag? I just polled the folks in my office; thirteen of fourteen brought bags to work today. Which of you carries your groceries home from the store without a bag? Paleolithic people carried their food in bags too. Did you use a lathe today? No? A telescope? No? A level? A fish hook? A candle? Did you use a bag today? I bet you did. Where is the bag?
The only container on the Forbes list is the pot. Could the bag be considered to be included under the pot? M. Ewalt says that it was, and it was omitted for that reason. I believe this is a serious error. The bag is fundamentally different from the pot. I can sum up the difference in one sentence: the pot is for storage; the bag is for transportation.
Each one has several advantages not possessed by the other. Unlike the pot, the bag is lightweight and easy to carry; pots are bulky. You can sling the bag over your shoulder. The bag is much more accommodating of funny-shaped objects: It's much easier to put a hacked-up animal or a heterogeneous bunch of random stuff into a bag than into a pot. My bag today contains some pads of paper, a package of crackers, another bag of pens, a toy octopus, and a bag of potato chips. None of this stuff would fit well into a pot. The bag collapses when it's empty; the pot doesn't.
The pot has several big advantages over the bag:
I have no objection to Forbes' inclusion of the pot on their list, none at all. In fact, I think that it should be put higher than #16. But the bag needs to be listed too.
Linguists found a while ago that if you ask subjects to judge whether certain utterances are grammatically correct or not, they have some difficulty doing it, and their answers do not show a lot of agreement with other subjects'. But if you allow them an "I'm not sure" category, they have a lot less difficulty, and you do see a lot of agreement about which utterances people are unsure about. I think a similar method may be warranted here. Instead of the tools that are in or out of the list, I'm going to make two lists: tools that I'm sure are in the list, and tools that I'm not sure are out of the list.
The Big Eight, tools that I think you'd have to be crazy to omit, are:
The other adjustments are minor: The pot got a big promotion, from #16 to #4. The pencil is represented by the pen, instead of the other way around. The rifle is teamed with the musket as "the gun". The telescope is replaced with the microscope. The level is replaced with the plumb line. The scale is replaced by the balance, which is more a terminological difference than anything else.
The omission of mine that worries me the most is the basket. I left it out because although it didn't seem very much like either the pot or the bag, it did seem too much like both of them. I worry about omitting the pin, but I'm not sure it qualifies as a "tool".
If I were to get another 13 slots, I might include:
[ Addendum 20190610: Miles Gould points out that the bag may in fact have been essential to the evolution of human culture. This blog post by Scott Alexander, reviewing The Secret Of Our Success (Joseph Henrich, Princeton University Press, 2015) says, in part:
Humans are persistence hunters: they cannot run as fast as gazelles, but they can keep running for longer than gazelles (or almost anything else). Why did we evolve into that niche? The secret is our ability to carry water. Every hunter-gatherer culture has invented its own water-carrying techniques, usually some kind of waterskin. This allowed humans to switch to perspiration-based cooling systems, which allowed them to run as long as they want.]
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